en.bitcoinsistemi.com
In its latest report evaluating Bitcoin's current market structure, cryptocurrency analytics company Glassnode argued that price movements are becoming increasingly fragile.
According to the company, Bitcoin is under pressure due to increasing unrealized losses, rising realized losses, and heavy profit-taking by long-term investors. However, the fact that demand has not completely disappeared keeps the price above the True Market Average level, indicating that patient buyers are absorbing the dispersion.
Glassnode states that two critical levels need to be reclaimed for the market to gain strength: the $95,000 cost-based quarterly rate of 0.75 and the short-term investor cost floor around $102,700.
Unless these levels are recovered, Bitcoin is said to be maintaining the Real Market Average region at $81,300 as a potential bottom formation area. The market being stuck in this band is turning the time factor against the bulls. It is noted that the prolonged sideways movement is challenging investor psychology, and the widening of unrealized losses can further increase selling pressure. Indeed, the Relative Unrealized Loss (30D SMA) indicator has risen to 4.4%, pointing to a stress level not seen in approximately two years.
Off-chain indicators also point to the continued weakness. ETF flows are trending negatively, while liquidity remains low in the spot market. There is no significant speculative appetite in the futures market, making the Bitcoin price more sensitive to macroeconomic developments. In the options market, investors are pricing in short-term volatility, turning to two-sided option structures, and demand for downside protection is increasing. This picture suggests a cautious market sentiment in the short term, but a more balanced one in the long term.
With the FOMC meeting, the last major macro catalyst of the year, approaching, implied volatility is expected to resolve later in December. Glassnode believes the short-term direction will largely depend on improved liquidity conditions and a reduction in seller pressure. Unless these conditions are met, Bitcoin is likely to remain stuck within its current fragile range.
Looking at the overall picture, Glassnode describes the market as “weak but holding.” While patient demand continues to support the price, intense selling pressure is preventing upward breakouts. For the long-term outlook to regain strength, investor confidence needs to be renewed, liquidity conditions need to improve, and critical cost floor levels need to be overcome. Otherwise, Bitcoin could remain in the current psychologically draining and time-bound range for an extended period.
*This is not investment advice.