en.bitcoinsistemi.com
Bitcoin (BTC) has decoupled significantly from traditional markets this year, experiencing its first annual negative divergence in a decade.
According to data compiled by Bloomberg, the S&P 500 index is projected to rise more than 16% in 2025, while Bitcoin is poised to close the year with a loss of about 3%. This marks the first year since 2014 that Bitcoin has declined while stocks have rallied strongly.
Bitcoin, which broke a record high of over $126,000 at the start of the year, has suffered a significant pullback in the last two months due to a sharp sell-off, forced liquidations, and weakening retail investor interest. Today, BTC has fallen as much as 4.4% to $88,135, nearly 30% below its all-time high set in October. This situation raises the question of why crypto assets remain under pressure despite expectations of Donald Trump's re-election and a softening of the regulatory environment in favor of the sector.
During the pandemic, a significant correlation emerged between Bitcoin and stocks due to the low interest rate environment, with both asset classes experiencing strong simultaneous rallies. However, the situation reversed in 2025. While AI stocks broke records, capital spending increased, and investors once again aggressively turned to equity markets, Bitcoin failed to capture the risk appetite. Meanwhile, gold and silver prices are approaching historic highs, indicating a strengthening of investors' search for safe havens.
“Bitcoin is a momentum asset,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., “and for most of the last decade, if there was a period of strong momentum, Bitcoin would outperform the markets. This year, precious metals have attracted a significant portion of the momentum inflows that Bitcoin typically attracts.”
Market sentiment has also weakened rapidly. Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have slowed, institutional support announcements have diminished, and key technical indicators have begun to point to a loss of strength. Bitcoin's shortening streak of consecutive daily highs suggests the rally hasn't been sustained.
According to Stephane Ouellette, CEO and co-founder of Toronto-based FRNT Financial, the current situation is merely a natural correction from Bitcoin's extremely positive performance over the past two years. Ouellette noted that Bitcoin has still outperformed the S&P 500 significantly over the two-year period, partly due to the Trump administration's positive approach to the sector. According to the analyst, stocks are simply “catching up.”
Ouellette stated, “Calendar-year comparisons can sometimes be misleading. As of early October, Bitcoin had significantly outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 12 months. This could be a normal pullback in a strong bull market, and it only temporarily distorts the relative performance trend.”
*This is not investment advice.