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XWIN Research Japan’s Trend Index has printed a “mild uptrend” score of 72/100, with Bitcoin ($BTC) holding near the $91,000 mark.
This comes even while fear gauges and liquidity data are warning of fragile conditions, with analysts saying a mix of whale accumulation, recovering spot prices, and overstretched retail leverage is painting a cautiously bullish, but jumpy, backdrop for the market.
Trend Index Points to Cautious Bull Phase
According to XWIN, real demand and liquidity still back a positive bias, even though overheated retail and thin liquidity mean prices can swing either way sharply.
Bitcoin is consolidating in the high-$80,000 to low-$90,000 band after dropping from around $99,500 to about $86,500 in 11 days, holding above both the ETF average cost near $82,000 and the short-term holder cost basis around $85,500.
The DeFi asset management platform’s index sits in the “mild uptrend” zone (60–79), suggesting a constructive setup rather than a blow-off phase. That lines up with broader market data showing $130 billion had been added to its overall value when $BTC started pushing toward $92,000.
Whale behavior is also an important part of the story. Per on-chain data cited by XWIN, holders with more than 10,000 $BTC are back in net accumulation, and there has been steady buying from 1,000–10,000 $BTC wallets up to cohorts holding less than 1BTC.
Additionally, the research firm highlighted data from Cointelegraph showing the world’s top 100 listed firms now hold over 1,058,000 $BTC, which it believes is a sign that corporate stacks are shifting from a side note to a central theme of the asset’s investment case.
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At the same time, it pointed to net outflows of 3,959 $BTC from centralized exchanges over the past 24 hours, combined with the largest futures open interest wipeout of the cycle, which went from about $45 billion to $28 billion, as a sign that leveraged excess has been flushed, leaving spot demand in better shape.
Diverging Signals
Despite the recent show of price resilience, sentiment is still bleak, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 22. However, XWIN noted that many investors are seeing the $80,000 region as “fair value” for Bitcoin.
According to the firm, traders are also watching a significant options expiry, with 147,000 $BTC contracts worth $13 billion set to mature on November 28, which could introduce short-term volatility.
Key price zones are also in focus, with XWIN suggesting a break above the $93,000 to $94,000 resistance band could pull Bitcoin toward the symbolic $100,000 mark. Even so, a drop below the $85,500 support could test further lows.
Meanwhile, altcoins are still lagging, with November’s wipeout having left many majors as much as 50% down. Still, analysts argue that capital is building in stablecoins ahead of a potential rotation. And with ETH back above $3,000, the network raising block gas limit, and pilots like tokenized money market funds going on-chain, XWIN believes the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency may be entering the early stage of a new upswing.