protos.com
This Thanksgiving, long-term bitcoin ($BTC) investors can be grateful for many years of positive returns. Despite some short-term complaints about a crabbish 2025, $BTC has rallied 450% over the past three years.
Going into this weekend, for investors with some extra time on their hands, a quick review of prior Thanksgiving weekends could be worthwhile to discover any historical patterns during the holiday.
Protos looked back through every Thanksgiving weekend since $BTC’s inception. Calculating the asset’s returns from its Wednesday close prior to each Thanksgiving through its subsequent open on Monday, the data is in as to whether $BTC has generally rallied or fallen during the 15 prior Thanksgiving weekends.
Percentage changes ranged from a 16% rally during the 2011 and 2015 holidays to a disappointing, 27% decline in 2010.
Of course, $BTC was a much smaller and more volatile asset during its early years, so double-digit gains and losses were commonplace.
Indeed, during its first few years on rudimentary exchanges like New Liberty Standard, BitcoinMarket, TradeHill, VirWoX, $BTC-e, and MtGox, $BTC would frequently gain or lose tens or hundreds of percentage points day-to-day.
As it’s grown in size and liquidity, its volatility has decreased.
Read more: 95% of all bitcoin is now mined and circulating
Does bitcoin normally rally on Thanksgiving weekend?
Historical prices reveal that the average trading action of $BTC over Thanksgiving weekend is mixed. Both mean and median returns of $BTC over its 15 prior Thanksgiving weekends are as close to zero as anyone could imagine — fractions of 1%.
Moreover, $BTC rallied for eight weekends and fell for seven weekends — as even as possible for a 15-year analysis.
Restricting the analysis to the past decade also reveals a perfect, 50/50 split: five Thanksgiving weekend rallies and five Thanksgiving weekend declines.
In summary, Thanksgiving weekend hasn’t been particularly good nor bad for $BTC.
Below are the returns of $BTC from its 15 prior Thanksgiving weekends.
- 2024: +1.3%
- 2023: +0.1%
- 2022: -1.1%
- 2021: +0.2%
- 2020: -2.8%
- 2019: -1.5%
- 2018: -13.3%
- 2017: +13%
- 2016: -1.7%
- 2015: +16%
- 2014: +2%
- 2013: -5%
- 2012: +1.3%
- 2011: +15.6%
- 2010: -26.5%
- 2009: -10%
Due to reduced business hours, lower trading volume, customary pauses on corporate announcements, reduced banking access, and other factors associated with the US national holiday, the weekend doesn’t have a strong pattern of price movements.