At this point, Dragosch said that Bitcoin's biggest pain zone is found between two critical cost-based levels.
The two critical cost basis levels, he said, are BlackRock's IBIT fund's average cost of $84,000 and MicroStrategy's cost floor of $73,000.
Dragosch argued that the final cycle bottom is more likely to form somewhere between these levels, noting that reaching either level could signal a cycle clearing and potentially the final bottom.
“Bitcoin could see an IBIT cost base of $84,000 or an MSTR cost base of $73,000 and I think we've reached maximum pain at this point.
We will most likely see the final bottom somewhere between these two.
But I think these will be very cheap prices and it will be like a complete cycle reset.”
CryptoQuant analyst with the pseudonym XWIN Research also stated in a recent analysis that if the Fed does not cut interest rates in December, Bitcoin could fall to between $60,000 and $80,000 by the end of the year.
*This is not investment advice.