Bitcoin Whales vs Everyone Else, and the Whales Are Winning

Bitcoin $BTC$102,082.53 remains only marginally positive year-to-date, suggesting 2025 has been a period of consolidation as the asset stabilizes around the $100,000 level.

Much of the recent price weakness appears linked to previously dormant coins re-entering circulation, per onchain data.

Large holders, commonly known as whales, have been the primary distributors, driving the current downward pressure on price, according to The Accumulation Trend Score (ATS) by Glassnode.

ATS measures the relative accumulation or distribution behavior across different wallet cohorts, accounting for both the size of entities and the volume of coins they have acquired over the past 15 days.

• A value near 1 suggests that participants in that cohort are actively accumulating.
• A value near 0 indicates that they are distributing holdings.
• Exchanges, miners, and certain other entities are excluded from the calculation.

Whales holding over 10,000 $BTC have been consistent sellers since August, marking three months of sustained distribution. Meanwhile, wallets in the 1,000–10,000 $BTC range remain neutral around a score of 0.5, while all smaller cohorts (below 1,000 $BTC) are firmly in accumulation mode, according to Glassnode data.

While in the first four months of the year, all cohorts were in deep distribution, which contributed to bitcoin’s 30% decline to $76,000 in April during the so-called tariff tantrum.

This data highlights a clear divide between whales and the rest of the market participants and for now, it appears the whales are still steering the price action.