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According to a report published by The Block, analysts at JPMorgan believe Bitcoin could rally to $165,000 before the end of 2025, arguing that the asset is currently undervalued when compared to gold on a volatility-adjusted basis.
The team, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, highlighted the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio, which has dropped below 2.0. This means that Bitcoin now requires just 1.85 times more risk capital than gold, down from higher multiples in previous years.
With Bitcoin’s market capitalization at roughly $2.3 trillion, the analysts noted that the asset would need to increase by about 42% to achieve parity with gold. Given that private investment in gold, including ETFs, bars, and coins, totals around $6 trillion, Bitcoin’s price would need to reach $165,000 to align with that benchmark.
From Overvalued to Undervalued
JPMorgan pointed out that the valuation gap has shifted dramatically in less than a year. At the end of 2024, Bitcoin was estimated to be $36,000 overvalued versus volatility-adjusted gold. Today, however, the bank estimates it is undervalued by around $46,000.
“This mechanical exercise thus could imply significant upside for Bitcoin,” the analysts wrote, adding that market dynamics now favor a stronger alignment with gold’s role as a store of value.
Macro Factors Driving the Outlook
The more favorable comparison comes at a time of heightened global uncertainty. Investors have turned increasingly toward alternative assets, with Bitcoin often described as “digital gold” due to its scarcity and decentralized design.
At the same time, gold has reached new highs amid safe-haven demand, strengthening the case for Bitcoin to narrow the gap. With spot Bitcoin ETFs driving billions in inflows and corporate treasuries expanding their holdings, JPMorgan sees sustained institutional participation as a key factor for this potential move higher.
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