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Citigroup has adjusted its year-end cryptocurrency targets, raising expectations for Ethereum (ETH) while slightly reducing its view on Bitcoin (BTC).
The Wall Street brokerage cited shifting investor preferences, yield opportunities, and broader macroeconomic pressures as drivers of its revised forecast, according to a recent report.
Bitcoin Forecast Trimmed to $133,000
Citi now projects Bitcoin will end 2025 at $133,000, around 12% above current levels near $118,700. While the “digital gold” narrative remains intact, analysts noted that Bitcoin is trading well above adoption model estimates, and macro headwinds such as a stronger U.S. dollar and weaker gold prices have capped near-term upside.
The firm’s 12-month target for Bitcoin remains far more bullish at $181,000, underscoring continued confidence in long-term adoption. However, Citi also outlined a bear case in which Bitcoin could drop to $83,000 if recessionary conditions materialize and investor appetite for risk assets fades.
Ethereum Outlook Lifted
In contrast, Citi raised its forecast for Ethereum, citing stronger flows and its growing appeal as a yield-generating asset. The bank now expects ETH to close the year at $4,500, nearly 3% higher than its current level of $4,375. Looking further ahead, Citi’s 12-month target is $5,440.
Ethereum’s summer rally, supported by rising institutional allocations and financial advisors increasing crypto exposure, has shifted momentum in its favor. Analysts also highlighted ETH’s staking and DeFi infrastructure as structural advantages, offering holders yield opportunities unavailable with Bitcoin.
Drivers: ETFs, Treasuries, and Investor Demand
Citi’s base case assumes $7.5 billion in year-end flows into Bitcoin through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate digital treasuries, with a bull case tied to stronger equity markets. For Ethereum, growth is expected to stem from steady ETF inflows, increasing institutional adoption, and broader participation in staking platforms.
While both tokens are trading above user-activity-based valuation metrics, Citi emphasized that sustained inflows will be critical to maintaining current levels and supporting further growth.
Outlook Into 2026
Despite short-term adjustments, Citi views the long-term trajectory for both assets as positive. Bitcoin continues to serve as a macro hedge and store of value, while Ethereum is evolving into a yield-bearing digital asset tied to decentralized finance activity.
According to Citi’s analysts, the balance of flows between the two assets will define crypto’s next phase. Bitcoin retains dominance as “digital gold,” but Ethereum’s yield advantage is attracting a new class of investors, signaling that the market’s leadership may gradually diversify.
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