MSTR’s Example: Buying the Top in Bitcoin Cycles
Take MSTR’s (Strategy) activity as an example. The company made some of its heaviest allocations during late 2024, as Bitcoin surged above $70,000 following ETF approvals. This was far from unique, as the broader treasury sector showed the same pattern of front-loading purchases during euphoric phases.
Figure 2: Many treasury purchases cluster around cycle peaks rather than troughs. View Live Charts
While understandable (capital is easiest to raise when prices are rising and sentiment is high), the result is that treasury companies are often overpaying. In fact, backtesting shows that waiting for even modest pullbacks could have saved firms 10–30% on average compared to their actual entry prices. Of course, nobody has a crystal ball to predict price action, but at the very least, not buying immediately after triple-digit percentage gains in a few weeks would probably help!
A Simple MVRV target="_blank" rel="noopener">MVRV Ratio as a filter. This approach is not complex. It doesn’t attempt to time exact bottoms, nor does it rely on subjective judgment. Instead, it uses a rolling MVRV percentile threshold to avoid allocating during the most overheated phases of bull markets.
Figure 3: Using MVRV-based signals, $BTC accumulation can be effectively timed. View Live Chart
By avoiding purchases when the MVRV ratio was in its top 20% of historical readings (a proxy for overvaluation) and simply deploying that capital during cooler periods, MSTR (Strategy) alone would be holding almost 685,000 $BTC today, nearly 50,000 $BTC more than it currently owns.
At current prices, that’s over $5 billion in additional Bitcoin. To put that in perspective, the “missed” Bitcoin is roughly equivalent to the combined lifetime holdings of the other Active Bitcoin Treasury Companies (except Marathon Digital).
Figure 4: A simple MVRV-based filter would have yielded ~50,000 more $BTC for MSTR (Strategy).
Similar frameworks have been tested on other markets such as altcoins, equities, and even the S&P 500, and they consistently outperform blind dollar-cost averaging. Strategic dollar-cost averaging beats emotional dollar-cost averaging pretty much regardless of market conditions.
Implications for MSTR, Treasuries, and Individual Investors
For treasury companies, implementing this model could mean billions in extra value over time. For individual investors, the same principle applies of simply avoiding chasing rallies during euphoric phases, and instead let the market come to you.
Figure 5: Adopting a more strategic DCA approach, by avoiding the most over-valued dates, would have driven higher returns for MSTR and other investors.
Of course, we must acknowledge the nuances. Corporations face constraints in raising capital, executing large block trades without slippage, and managing shareholder expectations. But even within those limits, a simple>Conclusion: MSTR’s Path to Smarter Bitcoin Accumulation
Bitcoin treasury companies have been an enormous net positive for the network. Their combined 1 million $BTC holdings reduce supply, increase the money multiplier effect, and highlight the growing institutional adoption of Bitcoin. But the data shows that most of them could almost certainly be doing better. A simple strategy of avoiding purchases during overheated conditions would have netted MSTR (Strategy) alone an extra 50,000 $BTC, worth more than $5 billion today.
For both corporations and individuals, the message is the same: discipline outperforms FOMO. Treasury accumulation has reshaped Bitcoin’s supply landscape, but the next evolution may be smarter accumulation strategies that maximize returns and limit the markets downside volatility without increasing risk.
For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here:
This Simple Bitcoin Strategy Would Have Made Them Billions
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
This post How MSTR Could Have Gained 50K Extra Bitcoin with MVRV $BTC Strategy first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.
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