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A Bloody End to August 2025
Bitcoin ($BTC) and Ethereum ($ETH) are feeling the heat. $BTC has dropped to nearly $110K, while $ETH slipped below $4,360 amid a $15 billion options expiry and the looming monthly close. Traders are calling this a manipulation play by whales to flush out leverage, but the fear is real: could $BTC actually break below the $100K psychological line in September 2025?
Options Expiry and Market Games
Historically, big expiry days create sharp, sudden dumps as market makers hedge positions and force liquidations. With $BTC open interest sky-high, the timing of this sell-off is no coincidence. Similar setups in past cycles (2017, 2021) show that once expiry passes, markets often stabilize—but only after a brutal shakeout. September could open with this same scenario, leaving traders on edge.
Macro Picture: Global Liquidity is Rising
Despite the panic, there’s a powerful bullish force lurking in the background. Global M2 liquidity just hit a new all-time high, and Bitcoin has historically followed liquidity growth with a slight lag. The divergence we’re seeing now—liquidity pumping while $BTC dips—suggests that this correction may only be temporary and that September’s early weakness could set up a stronger rebound later in the month.
September 2025: Bearish Start or Bullish Setup?
Traditionally, September is one of Bitcoin’s weakest months. Post-halving years have seen messy Q3 action before big Q4 rallies. The first days of September may extend the current weakness, with $BTC at risk of testing the 107K–103K zone and $ETH targeting $4,100–$4,050 if selling pressure continues.
But if $BTC reclaims 113.5K–116K, and $ETH recovers 4.45K–4.60K, the market could flip fast, turning September into the launchpad for a strong Q4 rally.
What Traders Should Watch
- Bearish Break: $BTC slips under 109K, confirming targets at 107K → 103K. $ETH risks a slide to 4.10K.
- Bullish Reclaim: $BTC breaks 116K, $ETH clears 4.60K, confirming renewed momentum.
- Liquidity Signal: Rising M2 suggests that dips in September may be short-lived—positioning matters more than panic.
The headlines may scream crash, but history says this looks more like a shakeout during September rather than the end of the bull cycle. Yes, Bitcoin could briefly flirt with the $100K level in September 2025, but the macro liquidity wave is still pointing higher. If the month starts bearish, the bigger picture remains: Q4 could be the rally that nobody wants to miss.