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Bitcoin’s explosive ascent defies past predictions as U.S. regulators pivot toward institutional adoption—forcing even a top Harvard economist to completely reassess his early outlook.
Harvard Professor Admits Bitcoin Miscalculation—Key Drivers Still Loading
Cryptocurrency’s durability continues to challenge critics, including leading economists who once doubted its staying power. Kenneth Rogoff, Maurits C. Boas Professor at Harvard University and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), reflected on Aug. 19 through social media platform X that his widely cited 2018 forecast had underestimated bitcoin’s trajectory.
“Almost a decade ago, I was the Harvard economist that said that bitcoin was more likely to be worth $100 than $100K,” he wrote, acknowledging that assumptions underpinning his outlook proved inaccurate. In reassessing his position, Rogoff highlighted three factors he failed to anticipate. He first pointed to weak regulatory resolve:
What did I miss? I was far too optimistic about the US coming to its senses about sensible cryptocurrency regulation; why would policymakers want to facilitate tax evasion and illegal activities?
He also cited bitcoin’s role in unregulated finance: “Second, I did not appreciate how bitcoin would compete with fiat currencies to serve as the transactions medium of choice in the twenty-trillion dollar global underground economy. This demand puts a floor on its price, as I discuss at length in my new book Our Dollar, Your Problem.”
At the time of his comments, bitcoin was trading near $113,500 after reaching a record high of about $124,500 in August. The price has since retreated, with analysts describing the move as consolidation amid market unease.
The Harvard professor’s final concern focused on conflicts of interest:
Third, I did not anticipate a situation where regulators, and especially the regulator in chief, would be able to brazenly hold hundreds of millions (if not billions) of dollars in cryptocurrencies seemingly without consequence given the blatant conflict of interest.
Despite Rogoff’s skepticism, the policy backdrop in the United States is evolving. The current administration has set out to position the U.S. as a global crypto hub, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) “Project Crypto” aimed at modernizing digital asset oversight, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) “Crypto Sprint” designed to accelerate regulatory clarity. The Federal Reserve, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) have also adopted more permissive positions, signaling a shift from restrictive policies toward institutional adoption and innovation-focused frameworks.