Google Publishes Scientific Paper That Could Change What We Know About Bitcoin: “20 Times Easier to Break Than Previously Thought”

A new scientific paper from Google's quantum research team could change what is known about Bitcoin.

Google researchers have revealed that RSA encryption, which protects systems from internet banking to Bitcoin wallets, can be broken by quantum computers with 20 times fewer resources than previously thought.

In a study published in 2019, Google Quantum Researcher Craig Gidney predicted that 2048-bit RSA encryption could be broken in eight hours with a quantum computer with 20 million noisy qubits. However, in his new study, he significantly revised this number: This process can now be done in less than a week with a quantum computer with less than 1 million qubits.

“This represents a 20-fold reduction in the number of qubits compared to our previous estimate,” Gidney wrote in his blog post.

This development does not mean that your Bitcoin or internet banking passwords will be cracked immediately. Currently, IBM's most powerful quantum computer, called Condor, has a capacity of 1,121 qubits; Google's Sycamore works with only 53 qubits. However, the pace of progress in the quantum field shows that it could pose serious risks to security systems in the future.

Google said there are two main drivers behind this development: faster algorithms and more efficient error correction methods. The researchers managed to speed up one of the most difficult operations in cryptography, “modular exponential computations,” by a factor of two. They also improved the error correction layer, allowing more “logical qubits” to operate in the same physical space. This significantly increased processing efficiency.

Another technical innovation is a method called “magic state cultivation,” which allows quantum computers to perform complex tasks with higher accuracy and fewer resources.

Unlike RSA, Bitcoin is protected by a system called elliptic curve cryptography (ECC). However, both encryption systems are based on similar mathematical foundations. Google’s new finding on RSA could mean that ECC could also be broken sooner than expected. While the 256-bit encryption that Bitcoin uses is currently quite strong, the exponential development of quantum computers could erode this security over time.

*This is not investment advice.