thecryptobasic.com
Bitcoin is nearing a key resistance breakout, fueling bullish anticipation for a potential surge to $92K. Could this lead to a new bullish rally toward $100K?
On Tuesday, Bitcoin briefly reached the $85,000 mark, registering a 3.19% price gain. Increased price volatility initially resulted in a 24-hour low of $81,188, but the market has rebounded nicely. Will this increased trend momentum lead to an impulsive breakout rally?
Bitcoin Price Analysis
In the daily chart, the Bitcoin pullback trend, which began in late January, has formed a local resistance trendline. The downturn reached a point where it saw a downswing to around the $76,000 mark, slightly above the 50% Fibonacci level at $75,533.
Now, Bitcoin’s recovery run is struggling to overcome the newly formed resistance trendline. On April 1, a Morning Star pattern was completed, with a bullish engulfing candle showing a 3.19% surge that tested the overhead resistance trendline.
Currently, Bitcoin is forming a lower price rejection bearish candle, reflecting a quick bullish turnaround from the 61.80% Fibonacci level at $81,855.
Despite this, strong underlying support suggests Bitcoin is close to surpassing the overhead trendline. Technical indicators point to a potential continuation of the uptrend.
However, the MACD and signal lines indicate a minor pullback in bullish momentum as the average lines have converged. Despite this, a resurgence in bullish histograms could reignite the positive trend.
Analysts Highlight Strong Resistances Amid Rising Supply
As Bitcoin prices hint at a potential breakout, crypto analyst Ali Martinez has pointed out two key resistance levels based on the MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands: $94,280 and $112,380.
The pricing bands highlight two critical resistance levels for #Bitcoin $BTC:
• $94,280
• $112,380 pic.twitter.com/ky2zFJD1Am— Ali (@ali_charts) April 1, 2025
However, the analyst also cautions about the growing Bitcoin exchange reserves. According to data from CryptoQuant, over 21,000 BTC have been moved to exchanges in the past four days.
This has increased Bitcoin exchange reserves from 2.419 million BTC to 2.440 million BTC. The rise in exchange supply amid growing volatility could lead to rapid downside spikes, as seen with the recent 24-hour low.
Over 21,000 #Bitcoin $BTC have been moved to exchanges in the last 96 hours! pic.twitter.com/Opg2Wt2JrH
— Ali (@ali_charts) April 1, 2025
Bitcoin ETFs Signal New Outflow Cycle
Amid increasing volatility, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have continued to experience outflows. On April 1, the daily total net outflow from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $157.64 million.
ARK 21Shares experienced the largest outflows for the day, with $87.37 million. Fidelity, Grayscale, and WisdomTree followed with $85.35 million, $10.07 million, and $6.76 million, respectively.
While six other ETFs saw net-zero flows, Bitwise and Franklin recorded inflows of $24.53 million and $7.39 million, respectively.
As of April 1, the total net assets of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs stand at $95.45 billion, representing 5.64% of Bitcoin’s market cap.
MetaPlanet Hits 4,206 BTC Out of Its 10K BTC Target
Despite the recent outflows in U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs, Japanese investment firm MetaPlanet continues to bet on Bitcoin. With a recent $13 million purchase, the firm now holds 4,206 BTC.
This recent acquisition of 160 BTC came just a day after a massive purchase of 696 BTC. The current holding is now worth $360 million, making MetaPlanet the world’s ninth-largest publicly traded corporate holder of Bitcoin.
The company previously stated its goal to hold 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025 and aims for 21,000 BTC by the end of 2026.
Bulls to Dominate Bitcoin Futures?
Increased volatility has driven many traders toward Bitcoin futures. Open interest has risen by 2.57%, reaching $53.93 billion.
The funding rate has entered a new positive cycle, reaching 0.0039%. This reflects strong bullish sentiment in the market, particularly when combined with the greater-than-1 long-to-short ratio observed on major exchanges like Binance and OKX.
Conclusion
The sudden surge in Bitcoin, coupled with rising open interest, suggests a leverage-driven rally. However, for the uptrend to sustain in the short term, a breakout above the trendline is necessary.
Based on Fibonacci levels, the recent price rejection at the 61.80% level could target the 78.60% level at $91,780 with a trendline breakout. Optimistically, the uptrend could continue toward the previous swing high near $106,000.
On the downside, Bitcoin’s immediate support level, under the 61.80% level, is around $75,500.