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Today, March 24, 2025, volatility was expected in the crypto markets, and so it was, so much so that the price of Bitcoin slightly increased.
Although this rise is still very limited, it is interesting because it occurred at a time when things could have gone in the exact opposite direction.
Summary
The small turn of Friday
Friday the 21st, there were several signals indicating the possibility of a further decline in the markets.
At this moment, everything depends on the US stock markets, under strong stress due to the negative consequences of Trump’s foreign trade policies.
Taking as a reference the S&P500 index, the most representative of the US markets, the decline had actually started on February 20, and it had a relative low eleven days ago, on March 13.
Since then, the decline seems to have stopped, at least temporarily, but on Friday a possible resumption of the bear phase was expected.
Despite various negative signals, however, this decline has not restarted.
In fact, after the rebound on March 14, it seems that a phase of lateralization has begun, still ongoing although still too short to be defined as a trend.
This is a lateralization below the levels of March 7, which is the last positive day before the drop that led to the relative low of the 13th.
So the declining phase actually stopped on March 14, but until Friday the risk of its resumption still seemed high. Instead, after Friday’s performance, the situation has calmed down.
The price of Bitcoin over the weekend until today’s rebound
On the weekend, traditional stock exchanges are closed.
On Friday, the price of Bitcoin hardly moved, meaning it held steady just like the US stock markets. It also did not move on Saturday.
However, already yesterday, probably in anticipation of today’s volatility, the crypto markets seemed to want to anticipate the events, and the price of BTC slightly rose from $83,800 to above $85,000.
During the night, the increase in volatility brought it back above $87,000, and it might not be over yet, as the US stock markets have yet to reopen.
Since it cannot have been the traditional markets influencing the price of Bitcoin over the weekend, the reason must be sought in the crypto markets.
In fact, over the weekend the selling pressure of BTC on crypto exchanges decreased, and since it was already low before, it practically reached the absolute minimums of the current cycle, and perhaps even of the previous cycle.
The future scenario changes after today’s Bitcoin price increase
In theory, today should mark the end of the short period of slightly higher volatility, and from tomorrow, we might enter a phase of sluggish lateral movement that could continue until the end of April.
That said, any significant events could alter this picture, also because with such low buying and selling pressures, it takes little to change it.
To tell the truth, much seems to depend on the US stock markets, which may have completed the correction due to fears about the consequences of Trump’s tariffs, and are in feverish anticipation of understanding what will happen from April 2nd.
The key date at this moment seems to be precisely that one, namely the date from which the bulk of the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump should come into effect.
There is still strong uncertainty regarding the reaction of the markets to the events scheduled for April 2nd, also because no one really knows how they will end up.
The main doubt lies in the fact that Trump might also use tariffs primarily as a negotiating tool to obtain other things, and therefore in the end he might not impose them, or impose them only partially.
The medium-term forecasts
Starting from the first half of April, the picture should be clearer, and it will be possible to start making forecasts about the evolution in the coming months.
In recent days, for example, the hypothesis is gaining ground that the markets could restart from the end of April, although often in periods like this the interlocutory phase lasts until June.
For Bitcoin, the probabilities that the price could end up collapsing significantly below $75,000 are decreasing more and more, and it is not at all to be excluded that this figure could be approached in relatively short times.
However, the hypothesis that after June the market could restart is widely shared, even if not by everyone, so much so that the price of Bitcoin might also have the chance to reach new highs by the end of the year.