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After bitcoin’s ascent to $109,000 and a more recent decline below $93,000, the asset’s price has fluctuated between those levels.
While price predictions remain a normal part of industry fodder, Copper.co took a bit of a different approach.
The crypto custody firm blended technical indicators (like the Relative Strength Index) with historical returns, volatility clustering and daily range behavior to forecast possible $BTC price outcomes.
“Our main goal was not to pinpoint a specific final peak for bitcoin, but instead to identify price points at which traders might consider the market to be overextended,” Copper.co research head Fadi Aboualfa said in a statement.
The firm’s model indicated “concern levels” for $BTC between $140,000 and $200,000 throughout 2025. High-accuracy (up to 91%) simulations paralleling last year’s calmer volatility profile signaled a potential breach near $165,000 in June.
“To clarify, these are not levels bitcoin will necessarily reach, but if it does, the market might be suggesting a potential peak,” the study explains.
The report calls bitcoin’s declining 30-day rolling volatility an “often-overlooked factor” — noting that low volatility allows a longer, smoother price climb. The simulations found any $BTC price dip is projected to be short-lived.
Targets can, of course, be negated by external catalysts, the report warns.
“If bitcoin hits some of these upper limit projections and the next day the US does indeed announce a strategic reserve, are you shorting?” it poses. “Unlikely.”