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MicroStrategy Chairman and Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor explains how and when Bitcoin could reach his ambitious price target.
Over the years, there have been several long-term bullish calls for Bitcoin‘s price, but not many have been as ambitious as Michael Saylor’s prediction.
In July 2024, at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, the MicroStrategy executive chairman stunned many by predicting that Bitcoin would eventually be worth $13 million. Recently, he has shed light on when this might happen and how.
Bitcoin’s Road to $13M
According to Saylor, Bitcoin will hit the $13 million mark in the next 21 years or by 2045. The renowned Bitcoin evangelist made this known during a Tuesday, December 17 Impact Theory podcast episode when asked about his July 2024 Bitcoin prediction.
Speaking to show host Tom Bilyeu, Saylor explained that his $13 million Bitcoin price target was based on the “Bitcoin24” model. The Bitcoin24 model is an open-source tool that allows individuals, corporations, institutions, and even countries to simulate the 21-year outcome of various Bitcoin strategies using their own assumptions.
The key assumption for Saylor is that Bitcoin will grow by 20% a year, down from the current 60%, with an average rate of return (ARR) of 29% over the next 21 years.
Around the time Saylor made this prediction, the asset was trading for $65,000, leading to a future price of about $13.6 million. At current prices around $104,000, the MicroStrategy chief’s prediction will yield a result of nearly $22 million. It is worth noting that in July 2024, he described the $13 million target as his base case.
During the recent podcast, Saylor contended that the two main drivers of this prediction will be education and adoption by high-net-worth individuals. He highlighted that presently, about 95% of the world remains in the dark about Bitcoin’s potential, but the veil may already be lifting.
Capital Inflows to Bitcoin Rapidly Rising
Notably, the wheels may already be turning in Bitcoin’s favor as capital allocation to the asset rises. The recent launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. is playing a key role in this growth.
In just over 11 months, these products have seen $37 billion in net inflows and hold nearly $122 billion in assets. BlackRock’s product IBIT alone possesses almost $59 billion and has become the most successful ETF launch over the past decade.
As Saylor highlighted in the Impact Theory podcast episode, in light of this success, asset managers like BlackRock are now leading the orange-piling effort. Recently, the firm released a report recommending that investors allocate up to 2% of their portfolio to Bitcoin.
Beyond ETFs, Saylor noted that companies are also jumping on the bandwagon by allocating a portion of their treasuries to Bitcoin.
While MicroStrategy has led the charge with holdings exceeding 439,000 BTC, about 2% of the total supply, Saylor highlighted that firms like Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms, Semler Scientific, and Metaplanet have recently entered the fray as institutional investors show demand, which has reflected in their stock prices.
For context, MicroStrategy’s shares have surged by 490% year-to-date (YTD), outperforming even Bitcoin, which has grown only about 150%, as institutional investors see the stock as a proxy for Bitcoin exposure.
In the past six weeks alone, Saylor noted that the firm has been able to raise a staggering $15 billion to buy Bitcoin after unveiling its $42 billion Bitcoin treasury plan. It took four years from 2020 for the firm to raise $10 billion to buy Bitcoin.
At the same time, Saylor noted that countries were also beginning to take note, with the U.S. set to join El Salvador in establishing a Bitcoin reserve under the incoming Donald Trump administration.
“What’s going on right now is the emergence of Bitcoin as the digital capital network for the world,” Saylor told Impact Theory’s Tom Bilyeu.
“And the thing driving it from $100,000 to $13 million over the next 21 years is the adoption of it as a capital asset by people that have the wealth,” he added.