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Today, December 16, 2024, the value of Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high, above 106,400$.
The peak occurred just before the reopening of the Asian stock exchanges after the closure for the weekend.
Summary
Analysis of Bitcoin value today
Note that today’s value of Bitcoin is 148% higher than at the beginning of the year.
Furthermore, it is 15% higher than that of a month ago.
These two data points, when compared, reveal quite clearly how the significant growth of Bitcoin this year is not at all due solely to what has happened in the last few weeks.
In fact, at the beginning of the year, the value of a Bitcoin in US dollars was not much higher than $40,000, and by March it had already reached new all-time highs above $70,000.
That initial rise, however, had stopped right around mid-March, and in fact, until the US presidential elections on November 5, it had done nothing but move sideways, although with pronounced ups and downs, as usual.
The value of Bitcoin today after Trump’s victory
To finally make the value of BTC take off again, it was Trump’s victory in the presidential elections that did the trick.
In less than 24 hours, it indeed marked new all-time highs above $74,000, and in just over two weeks, it rose to over $99,000.
At that point, after a brief correction of 9%, it resumed climbing until it exceeded $100,000 on December 5.
From December 6 until yesterday, however, it had not been able to resume the run.
The new bull run of Bitcoin
To tell the truth, it was expected that a new Bitcoin run could start only at the end of the current week.
Instead, it anticipated expectations by starting to rise last night.
At this point, however, two different perspectives open up.
Either today’s peak is an exception, due to an excess of anticipation, or it is already a new beginning.
If there should be an excess of anticipation, compared to the forecasts of a new phase of the bullrun starting from Friday or Saturday, one might expect a few days of consolidation before the actual (and eventual) resumption of the bullrun.
Note that the movement last night does not seem to have been triggered by specific news, and it occurred when the Chinese stock exchanges had not yet reopened and in the USA it was already evening.
The second hypothesis would therefore also remain valid, that of an actual new beginning of a bull phase.
Japan
Japan, however, is one hour ahead of China.
In fact, last night the spike in Bitcoin started a few minutes before the reopening of the Tokyo stock exchange, and it reached its peak just as the Tokyo stock exchange was recording a +0.4%.
Although the numbers are significantly different (Bitcoin was making a +2% in the same time period), the timings match closely enough to suggest that they might be connected in some way.
Subsequently, the Tokyo stock exchange reversed the trend and ended up closing practically unchanged, or with a very small decline.
When the Chinese stock exchanges opened, an hour and a half after Tokyo’s, the peak of Bitcoin was already behind. Moreover, the Chinese stock exchanges today are showing a sharp decline (-1% for Hong Kong’s), and this justifies the fact that the price of BTC subsequently fell back below $104,000.
It should be remembered that on Saturday, with markets closed, the news had come out that a Japanese parliamentarian named Satoshi (and with the surname Hamada) had put forward a legislative proposal aimed at establishing a national reserve in Bitcoin in Japan.
The USA stock markets
To understand if last night’s spike should be considered an exception, or the beginning of a new bull phase, it will probably be necessary to wait for the reopening of the American markets after the weekend.
The fact is that over the weekend, many positive news came from the USA for Bitcoin, and this suggests that, at least in theory, even the US markets might be ready to price an increase in the value of BTC.
The European stock exchanges, on the other hand, have only secondary effects and are open largely while the Asian ones are already closed, or while the American ones have yet to open.
The real level of attention, in case of a new bull phase, would seem to be $110,000, but if this phase were to start on the wave of enthusiasm, it cannot be ruled out that the $120,000 mark could already be taken as a second reference.
It should not be forgotten that in the second half of December, selling pressure tends to decrease during bull phases, due to the fact that many prefer to postpone sales by a few weeks in order to pay taxes on capital gains a year later.