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Bitcoin ($BTC) briefly touched the $100,000 level before falling to $95,000, but according to investment management firm ARK Invest, this is a temporary pause before $BTC sees a significant increase in value.
David Puell, research associate at ARK Invest, shared an optimistic outlook during an interview, saying: “We are more or less forecasting price targets of $104,000 to $124,000 by the end of the year. With the caveat that this is not a recommendation, but price action so far has held up quite nicely to that forecast.”
Puell bases his predictions on Bitcoin’s historical seasonality (patterns observed in previous bull markets) and on-chain data analysis. Puell believes that Bitcoin’s cyclical nature will remain intact unless there is strong evidence to the contrary. This means that while $BTC could reach new highs, it could eventually face a significant pullback similar to what was seen in 2022.
“I would classify the current market environment as kind of mid-bullish,” Puell explained. “If you’re measuring it from the bottom to the top, I would say we’re about 55% to 65% of the way through.” Based on those metrics, he estimates a potential cycle top between $126,000 and $134,000, but those targets could rise if market momentum picks up.
Puell’s analysis is consistent with the theory of diminishing returns as Bitcoin matures. A peak of $134,000 would mean a doubling of the 2021 all-time high of $69,000, compared to a three-fold increase seen between 2017 and 2021. While ARK Invest has prepared for this scenario, Puell noted that the data is not conclusive on whether this trend will continue.
*This is not investment advice.