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VanEck’s latest Bitcoin (BTC) report reaffirmed its cycle price target of $180,000, citing strong bullish indicators that align with the current market rally.
The asset manager highlighted key metrics, including funding rates, Relative Unrealized Profit (RUP), and retail interest trends, as signals that the bull market is still in its early stages.
Bitcoin has soared into uncharted territory, trading near $100,000 following a post-election rally. According to VanEck, this mirrors the market’s behavior in late 2020, when Bitcoin doubled after the US presidential election and continued its upward trajectory in the subsequent year.
With a pro-Bitcoin regulatory environment and growing institutional interest, VanEck believes the next phase of the bull market is underway.
Metrics signal bullish sentiment
VanEck analyzed perpetual futures funding rates as a measure of market sentiment, and the results show that elevated rates above 10% often coincide with significant short — to medium-term gains.
Since Nov. 12, funding rates have consistently exceeded this threshold, a pattern reminiscent of prior bull market phases.
The report stated:
“Historically, sustained high funding rates indicate heightened bullish momentum.”
However, it also cautioned that elevated rates often signal cycle tops over more extended time frames.
Moreover, the report examined Relative Unrealized Profit (RUP), which measures unrealized gains in the market. Current 30-day moving average RUP levels are approximately 0.54, well below the 0.70 threshold typically associated with market tops.
VanEck noted that RUP levels between 0.60 and 0.70 offer the most favorable conditions for short- to medium-term trades.
Retail interest rises
VanEck observed that retail interest remains below historical peaks as measured by Google searches for “crypto” and Coinbase’s App Store ranking. Search term popularity is just 34% of its May 2021 high, indicating that speculative mania has not yet taken hold.
Meanwhile, Coinbase’s App Store ranking has surged from 412 to 9 since Bitcoin’s election-night breakout, signaling renewed engagement from retail investors.
The report emphasized that Bitcoin’s current market trends suggest further upside before reaching exuberance typically associated with market tops. VanEck expects Bitcoin’s price to potentially double from current levels, reflecting a roughly 1,000% return from the cycle’s trough to its peak at $180,000.
VanEck concluded:
“With key indicators signaling green, this rally appears to be just beginning.”