thecryptobasic.com
Samson Mow emphasizes that the current Bitcoin cycle may differ from previous ones amid market comparisons and historical trends.
Bitcoin’s price has recently reclaimed the $91,000 mark amid ongoing short-term fluctuations. As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $91,511, reflecting a notable 3.41% gain over the last week.
Amid this movement, Samson Mow, CEO of JAN3, identified a historical movement suggesting this time might be different from previous cycle tops.
Comparing Previous Bitcoin Cycles
Mow released a chart comparing Bitcoin’s performance across four distinct market cycles. Using a logarithmic scale, the chart illustrates Bitcoin’s exponential growth since its inception.
The earliest cycle, from 2011 to 2013, shows the most significant volatility, with Bitcoin achieving a 10x growth within 450 days. This cycle ended with a 500X growth after 730 days from the earlier bottom.
In contrast, the 2015-2017 cycle presented steadier growth. By day 856, Bitcoin’s value had increased tenfold, eventually surging by 100 times its cycle low by the end of the 2017 bull run.
The subsequent 2018-2021 cycle experienced slower initial growth, with over 10x increase by day 960. The cycle peaked below a 50-fold gain by the end of the 2021 bull market.
Although current cycle trends align more closely with these later periods, showing below 10X growth after 740 days from its cycle low, Mow believes this time is different.
Let’s see how different. We’re about to find out.
— Samson Mow (@Excellion) November 19, 2024
Meanwhile, Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, also shared Mow’s chart but instead noted that the asset is on track with historical trends. Thorn added that Bitcoin now outperforms the 2015-2017 cycle.
Further Predictions Signal Optimism
While the debate about Bitcoin’s ongoing pattern continues, analysts have presented varying forecasts for BTC’s near-term and long-term trajectory.
Ali Martinez recently indicated that Bitcoin could rally to $150,000 in the coming days before a significant correction. Drawing parallels with previous cycles, Martinez pointed out that during the 2016/2017 and 2020/2021 bull runs, Bitcoin surged over 120% past its prior all-time high before facing up to 39% corrections.
Meanwhile, Fundstrat’s Head of Research, Tom Lee, has taken a more cautious approach. Speaking on CNBC, Lee maintained that Bitcoin could surpass $100,000 by the end of 2024.
Yet Lee maintains a $500,000 target beyond 2024, considering factors like Bitcoin ETFs and potential interest rate reductions.