Bitcoin Price Surge Drives Institutional FOMO for ETFs

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw a staggering $3.36 billion worth of trading volume yesterday—the highest it's been in the past six months. At the time of writing, the IBIT fund has $17.2 billion worth of Bitcoin under its management, according to Coinglass.

But it's not normal for ETF volumes to spike when the price is going up, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas said on Twitter.

"Typically ETF volume spikes in a downturn/crisis," he noted, adding that it's more likely yesterday's big uptick is attributable to some institutional FOMO—fear of missing out.

And it's easy to see why. In the past 24 hours, the Bitcoin price came within $175 of setting a new record above its previous all-time high of $73,737.94 on March 14.

At time of publication, Bitcoin is currently trading at around $71,740, up 0.8% on the day, and 8.1% on the week, per data from CoinGecko.

Now traders have their sites set on fresh U.S. nonfarm payroll, or NFP, report set to be released on Friday. It's a key economic indicator that would weigh heavily on whether the Federal Reserve sees fit to once again lower interest rates, according to Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital.

"This week’s spotlight is on Friday’s NFP report, a critical indicator of U.S. job market health, with consensus estimates around 110k — approximately half of the previous figure," the firm wrote in a trading note on Wednesday. "As the final major data release before next Friday’s Fed meeting, the report is expected to lock in market bets for the Fed’s next move."

Those bets, as captured by the CME FedWatch Tool, show that 99.6% of traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates again, lowering them 25-50 basis points.

But in the near term, investors are keeping an eye out for today's gross domestic product report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The report shows that the U.S. GDP increased by 2.8% in the third quarter, a slight slowdown from the 3% that was reported in Q2.

"Bitcoin appears to have entered an acceleration phase, aligning with expectations around the presidential election and other favorable catalysts," wrote BRN analyst Valentin Fournier, noting the GDP release. "With Bitcoin nearing its ATH, strong resistance may present a challenge, but the current momentum and favorable catalysts could drive an ATH breakout. We recommend staying heavily invested, with a preference for Bitcoin over Ethereum."

Edited by Stacy Elliott.