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The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, has performed tremendously in 2024 following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, reaching a new ATH of $73,600 in March.
However, BTC could not break out of the downtrend it entered after ATH, and the rally that investors were waiting for never came.
While analysts say that the approaching US elections and Donald Trump's possible victory will be good for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, the decline in the copper-gold ratio does not give good signals for Bitcoin.
Speaking to Coindesk, analysts said there are several bullish signals for Bitcoin, including support and possible victory from pro-crypto presidential candidate Donald Trump and expectations of a Fed rate cut. However, these bullish signals are countered by the falling copper-gold ratio, which raises concerns for risky assets like BTC and cryptocurrencies.
Analysts noted that copper tends to perform well when the global economy is expanding and has historically responded positively to China’s stimulus announcements. Gold is also considered a safe haven by investors, and for all these reasons, a falling copper-gold ratio is widely seen as a risk aversion signal.
Analysts stated that the decline in the copper-gold ratio started in May and started to give signals of risk aversion, and pointed out that the decline in the ratio gained momentum in July, and that it heralded the risk aversion trend in early August, when BTC fell from $ 65,000 to $ 50,000.
At this point, analysts stated that Bitcoin fell in the years when the copper-gold ratio fell, in the light of historical data, and pointed out that BTC's strongest years were the same years when the copper-gold ratio increased.
If historical data is any guide this year, the falling copper-gold ratio casts doubt on the possibility of a rise in BTC towards $100,000 by the end of the year.
Bitcoin continues to trade at $68,300 at the time of writing.
*This is not investment advice.