thecryptobasic.com
A well-known market expert recently shared a comprehensive chart predicting when Bitcoin (BTC) might reach its peak price for this cycle.
Market analyst EGRAG suggests that the next price peak for BTC could occur in mid to late 2025. Interestingly, he based this projection on an analysis of four Bitcoin cycles and Fibonacci retracement levels to gauge how BTC has behaved after breaking major resistance levels.
Bitcoin Cycle Analysis
Notably, data from the chart shows that the first cycle took place between 2011 and 2013. EGRAG identified that after Bitcoin closed one full-body candle above the Fibonacci 1 level, it took 245 days (8 monthly bars) for BTC to reach its cycle top.
For context, this cycle duration marked the beginning of a recognizable pattern for Bitcoin’s long-term price behavior, with a top around $1,242. BTC reached this peak price in November 2013.
The second cycle hinges on Bitcoin’s movement between 2013 and 2017. After the same full-body candle closed above Fibonacci 1, Bitcoin reached its top after 214 days (7 monthly bars). BTC hit a top of $19,785 in December 2017.
In Cycle 3, EGRAG identified November 2021 as the month for cycle top, which took 335 days (or 11 monthly bars) to materialize. Some analysts consider April 2021 as the peak, but EGRAG’s chart shows that Bitcoin’s highest point occurred in late 2021, topping at $68,997.
Prediction for Current Bitcoin Cycle
Leveraging this historical data, EGRAG predicts two potential timelines for Bitcoin to reach its next cycle top. He calculates that the average duration from a full-body candle close above Fibonacci 1 to the cycle top is 265 days.
Using this average, EGRAG predicts that Bitcoin could top out around June 2025. Alternatively, when considering the longest cycle—Cycle 3, which took 335 days—EGRAG believes Bitcoin could also reach its peak in September 2025.
He noted that patience is key, as any full-body candle close above Fibonacci 1 in the coming months could slightly adjust these target dates. The timing of Bitcoin’s next cycle top could change based on upcoming market activity, but investors should monitor mid to late 2025.
EGRAG’s projection relies on Fibonacci retracement levels. Fibonacci 1 levels have served as important resistance points in each cycle. Once Bitcoin surpasses this resistance level, it has often rallied further toward Fibonacci 1.618 or higher.
The market analyst projects that in Cycle 4, after Bitcoin surpasses Fibonacci 1 (currently at $69,725), its price may push toward new highs, with Fib. 1.618 ($176,061) serving as the ultimate target on the chart.
Notably, market veteran Peter Brandt previously speculated that Bitcoin might have already reached its top for the cycle. However, in his most recent analysis, he argued that the cycle top might be $135K. Nonetheless, he insists BTC is still in a bearish position.