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Bitcoin options traders are bracing for a potential price rally following the US presidential election on November 5, according to Arbelos Markets CEO Joshua Lim.
Lim noted that there was a noticeable increase in traders buying call options expiring after the election, particularly in the $70,000 to $80,000 strike price range.
“It was a combination of systematic month-end selling by yield seekers and a ‘sharpening’ trend to sell pre-election options and buy cheaper post-election calls,” Lim said. The strategy suggests traders are expecting an upside breakout for bitcoin despite the current uncertainty in global markets. “I see an increase in calls in the $70,000-$80,000 range and calls above $100,000 due to implied volatility expectations after the election results,” Lim said.
According to Lim, Bitcoin has come to be seen as both an inflation hedge and a potential proxy for the US presidential election, especially if former President Donald Trump wins. “The options market is pricing in a 7% move on US election day, which is a bit low compared to BTC’s beta to risk assets,” Lim said.
In blockchain-based prediction markets, Trump’s chances of winning have increased significantly. On Polymarket, Trump’s chances of victory are currently 60.3%, while Vice President Kamala Harris’s are 39.6%.
Lim also pointed to the falling put-call volume ratio in BTC options, indicating a clear increase in activity focused on call options.
*This is not investment advice.