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With just over two months until the end of the year 2024, many in the crypto community are still anticipating a new all-time high (ATH) for the biggest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Bitcoin, according to a market survey.
Bitcoin reached an all-time high of about $74,000 in mid-March, driven by expectations of strong demand from U.S. exchange-traded funds, which were granted approval in the U.S. for the first time in January. Despite the surge, many believe Bitcoin's bullish run may not be over yet.
According to a recent survey, there remains a belief on the market that Bitcoin might surpass its previous peak.
There is a 72% chance of Bitcoin making a new ATH in 2024, according to @Polymarket.
— Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) October 17, 2024
What's your prediction for Bitcoin by the end of 2024? pic.twitter.com/hDM31gE5Bn
In a new tweet, crypto analyst Lark Davis, known as Cryptolark, has highlighted data from Polymarket, indicating a 72% chance of Bitcoin achieving a new all-time high (ATH) in 2024.
Cryptolark shared this insight with his followers, asking what their BTC price prediction for 2024 was. The expectation that Bitcoin might hit new all-time highs in 2024 is supported by historical trends, with Bitcoin exhibiting positive returns in Q4 during halving years.
Positive returns in Q4? Will history repeat
CoinGlass data shows that Bitcoin has always experienced strong fourth-quarter returns during halving years, with gains of 58% and 168% in 2016 and 2020, respectively. Furthermore, BTC's price has shown positive returns in eight of the eleven years between 2013 and 2023, with an average gain of 88%.
If history is any indicator, there is a 73% likelihood that Bitcoin will rally in the fourth quarter of 2024; however, whether this tendency will continue is unknown.
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, reached a nearly three-month high of $68,399 in Wednesday's trading session, following three days of steady increases before dipping.
The cryptocurrency market is trading in the red as investors anticipate new economic data after Fed members' latest comments on the likely path forward for interest rates. On Thursday, the most recent weekly jobless claims figures will be released, as well as September manufacturing and industrial production data.