coindesk.com
Bitcoin could be heading for a breakout to new record prices, based on previous cycle's price action.
Historical data suggests price could potentially rise to $108,000 to $155,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) has been stuck in a grueling, multi-month correction since hitting $73,000 in March, convincing many investors that the market top is already behind.
However, the recent price action resembles the top cryptocurrency's behavior during the previous two market cycles, which eventually resolved to the upside towards the end of the year. This suggests that a breakout to new record prices could happen in the next months.
Despite bitcoin's anemic performance since March, it's still up 290% from its November 2022 market bottom, in line with the previous two bull markets during the same period, Glassnode data shows. At this point in the four-year cycle, BTC advanced 309% during the 2015 to 2018 bull run and 251% in the 2018 to 2022 cycle.
On both occasions, the periods with the steepest rallies came later in the cycle on the way to the market top. If BTC stays within the range of its previous two cycles until the end of the year, it could rise by 600% to 900% from its cycle low, potentially reaching a price between $108,000 to $155,000.
Typical halving year correction
This year's corrective phase also mirrors the price action of bitcoin's previous two halving years.
BTC reached a mid-cycle peak in 2016 and 2020, followed by months of sideways action to break higher in the latter months of the year, well-followed pseudonymous crypto analyst CryptoCon noted.
The halving event happens automatically every four years and reduces by 50% the issuance of new tokens, which is widely believed to impact bitcoin's supply to create scarcity.
BTC dipped more than 40% from its June 2016 intermediate cycle top before breaking higher in December, TradingView data shows. In 2020, it declined roughly 21% from an August peak to eventually make new highs in late October, per TradingView. In both cases, the real fireworks happened in the next year, hitting a market cycle top.
This year, BTC hit a local peak in March at $73,000 before declining as much as 33% to its early August low. It's getting closer to the end of the typical mid-cycle correction, CryptoCon pointed out.
"Whether it's cycle top calls or recession predictions, everyone has a reason why they should fear the worst," he said. "Meanwhile, the cycle continues right on track, unscathed."
"All roads point to the real bitcoin bull run [in] 2025," he added.