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As Bitcoin (BTC) grapples with a challenging market environment, it has struggled to regain momentum, hovering around the $53,000 and $60,000 levels for six consecutive weeks.
After losing the crucial $70,000 threshold on August 1, the largest cryptocurrency remains at risk of further declines, particularly with the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting on September 18, where a 0.50% rate cut could significantly impact its price.
BTC’s Future Hangs In Balance
Recent insights from crypto analyst Doctor Profit suggest that the market is closely divided, with equal chances—50%—of a 0.25% or 0.50% rate cut. However, Doctor Profit is confident that the Fed will opt for the larger cut, citing a need for decisive action in the current economic climate. He notes, “A 0.25% cut is simply too little for where we are now.”
The analyst argues that failing to implement a 0.50% cut could lead to market turmoil reminiscent of the “Blood Monday” experienced on August 5, which saw Bitcoin plummet to lows of $48,900, resulting in a nearly 25% price drop.
According to Doctor Profit, this could include acknowledging the Fed’s past strategies and an optimistic outlook for the economy, potentially paving the way for future rate cuts.
Given these potential scenarios, the analyst warns of the potential for market manipulation and “scam wicks” that could mislead investors on both sides of the trade. In addition, geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Israel-Lebanon situation, add another layer of complexity and may exacerbate market fears and volatility.
Despite the short-term risks, Doctor Profit remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, particularly through the end of Q3 2025.
The analyst believes that any short-term panic will ultimately be countered by a return to expansive monetary policy, as seen in the recent influx of USDT and other cash injections into the market. He highlights that once the rate cuts are implemented, the Fed’s money printing will likely resume, providing a foundation for recovery.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Looking deeper into the current price action, analyst Ali Martinez recently noted that Bitcoin trades within a parallel channel on the hourly chart.
Martinez contends that Bitcoin could bounce back to the middle or upper levels if the lower border holds, targeting $60,200 or $62,000. However, Martinez warns that a break below the support level of $58,100 could lead to a drop towards $55,000.
Zooming out to a broader perspective, Martinez also highlights concerning trends in Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Momentum. Since breaking below the $66,750 mark in June, Bitcoin has been in a downtrend, and this negative trend has yet to show signs of reversal.
To invalidate this indicator, BTC needs to break above this level and reclaim it as support, which could signal the continuation of an expected rally towards the all-time high of $73,700 reached in March this year.
When writing, the largest cryptocurrency on the market is trading at $58,440, recording losses of over 3% in the 24-hour.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com