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In a recent article, Arthur Hayes outlined a bleak outlook for Bitcoin, suggesting that in the worst case, it may gradually decline to the $50,000 mark. The previously-bullish Hayes is now modifying his forecast, saying that the market will stay bearish in the near term, especially until late September.
He predicts that Bitcoin will only slightly increase during this time, while altcoins will probably see much larger drops. His logic is based on macroeconomic elements like the U.S. government's spending patterns and the futile tightening policies of the Federal Reserve. According to Hayes, as 10-year Treasury yields approach the risky 5% mark, the bond market will tighten conditions - something the Fed has not done.
This change may put a stop to the current bull run on the stock market and raise questions about the balance sheets of smaller banks, which would put more pressure on riskier assets like Bitcoin. It is noteworthy that Hayes continues to hold a bullish long-term outlook. He has not sold all of his assets, and he may even buy more of a few different cryptocurrencies.
His outlook for the future is predicated on his conviction that eventually the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) will be reduced or quantitative easing (QE) will be reinstated as a means of government intervention on the markets to infuse liquidity.
According to Hayes, in the long run, these steps would strengthen the value of Bitcoin. But his short-term prognosis is pretty dire. It is anticipated that Bitcoin will continue its gradual decline, with the $50,000 threshold serving as a crucial level to keep an eye on.
Hayes thinks that Bitcoin will only chop its price until intervention starts, which is probably later in September, while altcoins may drop even further. Though one could argue that Bitcoin's volatility and market dynamics frequently defy such predictions, Hayes offers compelling arguments for his pessimistic short-term outlook.
Numerous factors, many of which are subject to sudden change, affect the price of cryptocurrencies. His long-term bullish outlook is therefore still valid, but it is still dangerous to make specific short-term level predictions.