Will Bitcoin Break September's Jinx? What Data Suggests

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, ended the month of August down 8.73%, as expected based on past trends.

In a recent tweet, Ali Martinez noted that while Bitcoin played out its historical narrative for August, similar expectations exist for September typically believed to be a negative month for Bitcoin.

However, recent insights from Spot On Chain, shared in a thread of tweets, suggest five reasons why this year might be different.

First, negative Augusts may help to avoid a negative September. In other reasons cited, major selling pressures have cleared and long-term holders remain strong. Fourth, Bitcoin ETFs can be a renewed buying force and lastly, favorable interest rates, capital and regulations might help to boost the market in September.

Bitcoin to break September's jinx? Here are five indications

Spot On Chain’s analysis begins with a historical observation: While it is true that September usually sees a downturn, it's not a given. Nearly 43% of negative Augusts have been followed by a positive September. This year, with Bitcoin experiencing a negative August, there’s a chance that the worst may be behind it, setting up for a potential rebound.

Second, selling pressure has substantially declined for Bitcoin. Three major selling forces unloaded 170,917 BTC or $10.69 billion to the market in July and August, including the German government, which sold 49,859 BTC worth $3 billion in early July and no longer holds BTC. Mt Gox repaid 95,958 BTC in July and August and still holds 44,898 BTC worth $2.65 billion, or only a third of the initial holding. GenesisTrading distributed 24,068 BTC for repayment on Aug. 2 and no longer holds BTC.

However, the U.S. government still holds 203,650 confiscated BTC worth $12 billion, and like in the German government case, this can be a big selling force. However, recent actions suggest limited near-term sell-off risk.

In 2023 and 2024, the U.S. government moved 35,516 BTC worth $1.48 billion to Coinbase at nearly $41,637, but overall there were only weak price reactions because most sales were done via OTC with minimal impact on the market.

Long-term holders, which increased their supply by 262,000 BTC in August, bringing their total holding to 14.82 million BTC, or 75% of the total supply, remain another positive factor. Similarly, BTC ETFs can be a renewed buying force, if the pattern of alternating between positive and negative months continues.

Other potential buying simulators include the likelihood of FED cutting the interest rate in September, which could boost demand for risky assets like BTC or Bitcoin ETFs. FTX will repay $16 billion to creditors in cash, not crypto, which can be reinjected into BTC and the broad market.