Bitcoin Q4 Rally on Horizon? BTC Price May Rip Higher If Past Trend Holds

Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant's head of research, highlights that Bitcoin's price performance during halving years follows a pattern — one that could lead to a major rally in the final months of this year.

"Bitcoin price performance in halving years:- 2024 performance really similar to 2016 and 2020 so," Moreno wrote in a tweet.

Bitcoin halving events, which occur approximately every four years and reduce the reward for mining new blocks by half, have historically been followed by substantial price increases.

Moreno points out that the price performance in 2024 has so far closely mirrored that of 2016 and 2020, both of which were halving years that saw Bitcoin's price rise significantly.

Bitcoin witnessed its most recent halving event on April 19, 2024, which saw the block reward for Bitcoin miners slashed by half, from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Based on this historical trend, Moreno suggests that if Bitcoin's price is going to increase, it will likely be in Q4.

Bitcoin's price action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.43% in the last 24 hours to $58,423, recovering after two consecutive days of dropping. Bitcoin fell nearly 5% to reach lows of $56,120 in Thursday's trading session, retracing nearly all gains from the past week.

Much of the decline occurred after the latest July U.S. consumer price index (CPI) statistics were released late Wednesday. July's CPI rose by 2.9% year on year, as forecast, and fell below 3% for the first time since 2021. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs had net outflows, with Grayscale's GBTC being the most affected.

Cryptocurrencies have been "sensitive" to U.S. economic data in recent months. If macroeconomic uncertainty persists, some traders predict BTC's price might drop near $55,000 in the short term, before a major rally.

Julio Moreno believes there are still risks of a correction in the short term, as the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator is currently hovering in the "bear" phase.

Meanwhile, as Q4, 2024 approaches, the market is eagerly watching for signs of a potential rally - if the historical trend as highlighted above holds. It should, however, be borne in mind that past performance might not always be indicative of future results.