M2 Money Supply and VIX: Predicting Bitcoin’s September Surge

Understanding long-term market dynamics is crucial for savvy crypto investors. Recent analysis by Crypto Banter highlights the importance of monitoring the M2 money supply chart, which illustrates trends in liquidity across financial markets. This chart, overlaid with the S&P 500, reveals that historically, September is a weak month for stock markets due to reduced liquidity from summer vacations.

This trend also impacts cryptocurrencies. The M2 money supply chart, reflecting past increases in liquidity due to Federal Reserve policies, suggests potential significant price movements in the crypto market.

Moreover, analyzing market seasonality and the Volatility Index (VIX) can provide valuable insights. Historically, August tends to be weak for crypto, but recent spikes in the VIX above 45 and subsequent drops below 30 signal potential buying opportunities.

Such patterns have previously led to substantial gains in both the S&P 500 and Bitcoin. The Bitcoin/VIX ratio chart reinforces this potential, showing notable upward moves whenever it reaches certain trend lines. The current market’s volatility and choppy movements could pave the way for a possible parabolic advance in the coming months.

Additionally, understanding chart patterns like the “island reversal” is essential for predicting Bitcoin’s price movements. This pattern, involving a spike, a dip, and a gap, indicates significant resistance levels, particularly between $59,000 and $62,000. This is a novel occurrence in Bitcoin’s history, having trapped both bullish and bearish investors.

Key levels on monthly and weekly Bitcoin charts, specifically around $40,000 and $53,000, warrant close attention for potential price movements.

Current analysis of Bitcoin’s price range reveals significant resistance at $59,550 and $62,000 on the 4-hour chart, and $54,218 on the daily chart. With the market in a consolidation phase, a bear trap might occur before a possible v-shaped recovery.

Solana (SOL) is a standout performer, with its low transaction costs making it attractive during the meme coin super cycle. A break above $160 could propel Solana towards the $200 region.
In contrast, Ethereum (ETH) is underperforming against Bitcoin, while other assets like Kasper and Ton are worth monitoring for potential growth. Kasper’s anticipated exchange listings could lead to significant price movements.