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Investors have several reasons to be optimistic about Bitcoin, despite it entering one of the traditionally quietest trading months of the year, according to some analysts.
Historically, August has been a rough month for bitcoin, with BTC finishing lower in seven of the last eleven Augusts, posting an average return of 2.69% for the month. This average was heavily influenced by the over 65% gain achieved in August 2017, according to CoinGlass.
David Duong, head of institutional research at Coinbase, noted the impact of political developments on Bitcoin's performance. “We had anticipated that elections would be a major theme and driving factor in the second half of the year, and it happened much sooner than we expected,” Duong said. He predicts that this trend will continue in August.
Zach Pandl, director of research at Grayscale Investments, pointed to a potential Trump/Vance administration favoring a weaker dollar and Trump's support for BTC ownership and development in the US as factors that could affect prices. “July has been an important month for cryptocurrencies, with the launch of US spot Ethereum ETFs and the Republican party’s support for BTC creating broader public discourse around US crypto policy opportunities,” Pandl said. “The big question for August will be whether the improvement in the sector's fundamentals will translate into higher valuations,” Pandl added.
The Bitcoin community has been energized by former President Donald Trump's pro-crypto promises at last week's Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville and Senator Cynthia Lummis' proposal to create a US bitcoin reserve.
Alex Miller, CEO of Hiro, a startup that develops tools for application development on the Stacks blockchain, expects more moderate price movements in August. Macroeconomic factors, including disruptions in the tech stock space, could cause choppy trading for the remainder of the third quarter ending Sept. 30, according to Duong.
Also Mt. Gox distributions and “locked” altcoins as potential impacts. “Bitcoin will trade in a range, but the floor is now much higher than before due to demand from exchange-traded funds,” he said. “At the moment, both the floor and the ceiling are capped for Bitcoin. It is difficult to say how strong these movements will be throughout the month.” “But I do know that I do not expect to see a breakout above all-time highs for BTC in the next two months.”
Since March, Bitcoin has traded between $55,000 and $70,000, reaching a new all-time high above $73,000 but struggling to maintain that level. Grayscale's Pandl remains bullish on the potential for BTC to reach a new all-time high this year and ETH to retest $4,000. “Stock markets have wobbled, but so far BTC has performed well and traded more as a hedge against dollar weakness,” Pandl said.
“Whether it can remain resilient to a larger stock decline will be a key question as we move towards August 2024.”
*This is not investment advice.