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Over the past 11 years, dating back to 2013, bitcoin has typically experienced positive performance in July, with five of those months seeing gains exceeding 16%. This year, however, July is shaping up to be negative. Historical data for August and September suggests a trend of underwhelming returns, potentially persisting until October, which is known for its historical gains.
History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes
Historically, bitcoin tends to perform well in July, with data from coinglass.com showing positive returns 63.64% of the time. This means that in seven out of the last 11 years, July has brought gains for BTC. Notably, in 2013 and 2015, July saw increases of 9.6% and 8.2%, respectively. The subsequent five Julys experienced even higher gains, peaking at 24.03% in 2020.
Currently, however, bitcoin is down 7.77% this July, with three weeks remaining. Looking ahead, the odds change slightly at least according to historical trends. August has seen gains only 36.36% of the time over the past 11 years. Despite this, the head of Standard Chartered’s forex and digital assets research team predicts a new all-time high for BTC in August.
Retrospectively, September’s performance is even less promising, with gains recorded only 27.27% of the time, or in three out of the last 11 years. Conversely, October has historically been a strong month for bitcoin, with positive returns 81.82% of the time. This year, October precedes the 2024 U.S. election, which has been cited as a potential catalyst for BTC prices by Standard Chartered as well.
Although history seldom repeats itself, it often echoes familiar patterns. Future occurrences might reflect similar themes or trends, though this isn’t always the case. The current decline in July, along with traditionally weak performances in August and September, suggests caution, yet this may not necessarily play out as expected. Even with October’s historical strength and the upcoming U.S. election, potential opportunities may not materialize as anticipated.
What do you think about bitcoin’s past performances on specific months, do you think they still apply going forward? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.