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Brandt Suggests Bitcoin Might Have Already Hit Cycle Peak, Predicts Drop to $48,000

source-logo  thecryptobasic.com 14 June 2024 08:37, UTC

Contrary to multiple expert opinions, market veteran Peter Brandt says Bitcoin (BTC) might have already peaked this cycle, predicting a possible drop to $48,000.

The current market correction has triggered investor angst, with BTC struggling to reclaim $70,000. Two influential voices, Peter Brandt and Jurrien Timmer, recently shared their views on Bitcoin’s future. These insights have stirred concerns, especially Brandt’s bearish outlook.

Timmer: Bitcoin Sees Slowdown in Network Growth

In a post on X, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, considered Bitcoin to be like “exponential gold.” He believes Bitcoin’s price is mainly driven by its network growth, which benefits from Bitcoin’s limited supply, economic policies, and investor sentiment.

Timmer highlighted that Bitcoin and Ethereum follow similar growth patterns seen in many technological advancements. He used a power curve to show how Bitcoin’s price oscillates around the growth of its network.

However, the market analyst called attention to a recent slowdown in Bitcoin’s network growth. Despite this, the price has continued to rise, creating a divergence that Timmer finds concerning. He suggests that for Bitcoin to hit new highs, its network growth must pick up pace again.

Brandt Suggests Market Peak Might be Behind Us

Responding to Timmer’s view, Peter Brandt, a veteran market analyst, presented a more cautious perspective. Brandt pointed out that Bitcoin’s past bull market cycles have shown diminishing returns. Notably, each cycle has delivered lower percentage gains compared to the previous one.

Jurrien, does the exponential decay of the bull market cycles in Bitcoin concern you? While only few data points, past bull market cycles measured as percent gains from low to high have decayed:

2011-2013 lost 82% the power of the 2010-2011 move
2015-2017 lost 79% the power of… https://t.co/NGB3R1afGJ

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) June 13, 2024

The 2011/2013 bull market cycle in Bitcoin experienced an 82% reduction in gains compared to the 2010/2011 cycle. This pattern continued with the 2015/2017 cycle, which saw a 79% decrease in gains relative to the 2011-2013 period. Similarly, the 2018/2021 cycle had an 82% drop in gains from the 2015/2017 cycle.

Brandt suggests that if this trend continues, the current cycle might already be over, with the $73,777 peak price standing as the highest value for the cycle. This would mean Bitcoin might not surge past this price peak, contrary to some predictions of $100,000 or even $150,000.

For instance, Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, predicted in March that BTC would reach $100,000 in 2024. Robert Kiyosaki, financial commentator and author of ‘Rich Dad Poor Dad’ also shares this sentiment. Meanwhile, Standard Chartered and Binance CEO Richard Teng adjusted their targets to $150,000 and $80,000.

A Possible Bitcoin Drop to $48,000

However, if Brandt’s suggestion is apt, these price goals might not materialize in this cycle. In a separate analysis, Brandt noted Bitcoin’s current bearish position. According to him, if BTC falls through $65,000, it could drop to $60,000, and breaking that level might see it fall to $48,000.

Chart of interest – Bitcoin $BTC
Sometimes the most obvious interpretations of a chart work out, most of the time the charts morph. But the most obvious is this:
Break through 65,000, then mkt goes to 60,000
Break through 60,000 mkt goes to 48,000 pic.twitter.com/JsXXVx2EhV

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) June 13, 2024

Currently, Bitcoin has failed to confidently reclaim and hold above the $70,000 price threshold. The firstborn crypto currently changes hands at $67,112, marking a 5% drop over the past week. This decline aligns with Brandt’s bearish stance, suggesting caution for investors. Notably, Brandt had previously predicted BTC to hit 100 ounces of gold, representing a price of $234,000