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Yesterday, Bitcoin started the month of May in the worst way by brutally breaking the $60,000 price support, thus changing the outlook of the forecasts.
In the morning, sales were so consistent that they pushed the cryptocurrency below $57,000 USD, only to recover slightly during the evening.
Let’s now see what the future price forecasts are for this month: has the bull market ended or is there still room for some bullish movement?
Let’s see everything in detail below.
Summary
Bitcoin opens the month of May breaking the $60,000 USD support: price predictions
Labor Day on May 1st was painted red in the crypto market after Bitcoin marked a significant leg down bringing its price below the significant support of 60,000 USD and discouraging traders from optimistic predictions.
The largest portion of the sell-off was concentrated in the time frame from 8:00 to 10:00 in the morning, where the currency reached a minimum of 56,550 USD, then slightly recovered in the afternoon and hinted at a timid recovery in the evening.
In particular, at 20:000 there was a brief bull attack at 59,000 USD, immediately eaten up by the bears in the following hourly candle.
At the time of writing the article, the price of Bitcoin is around 57,700 USD, the market capitalization is 1.136 trillion dollars and the volume in the last 24 hours is around 46 billion dollars.
Expanding our horizons, we can clearly see how this week’s dump has definitively marked the formation of a very strong top (not necessarily the ATH of this cycle).
Even the RSI, which has been in overbought territory for several months, has been rejected downwards, a sign that bears are currently in control of the market.
The whole month of May could be potentially boring for Bitcoin price action as well as for other asset classes like stocks: as the saying goes “sell in may and go away“, typically from May to October disappointing performances are recorded in the stock market.
The first thing to do now before making medium-term forecasts is to look for the support that will be able to sustain the ongoing leg down: if a price rebound starts from $57,000, we could frame yesterday’s movement as a false one.
If the capitulation continues until 52,000 USD or worse until 48,000 USD, it may then take longer for a recovery, ruling out the option of an instant recovery.
Below 48,000 USD we could welcome a formally bearish summer, with the possibility of recovery starting from the last quarter of the year.
For now NO PANIC: we are still within a valid macro-range, from which the Bitcoin chart could start again at any moment.
Analysts at the Bitfinex cryptocurrency exchange agree that May will be a month of rest for Bitcoin, leaving room for potential breakout attempts on both sides of the chart without being able to take a decisive direction.
Here is what was reported in their weekly analysis:
“We believe we could see a consolidation of 1-2 months in Bitcoin prices, traded in a range with fluctuations of $10,000 on both sides. We expect the positive impact of the halving, which has led to a reduction in the supply of Bitcoin, to be seen in the coming months. At this point, it is also expected that the economy will perform better, having achieved a soft landing and avoiding a recession, providing further momentum to cryptocurrencies.”
Settlements and on-chain data
Yesterday, the loss of 60,000 USD for Bitcoin and the subsequent sales caused several bullish positions to be liquidated in the cryptographic derivatives markets, with liquidations totaling 250 million dollars.
It is worth noting that the day before another 330 million dollars were liquidated while the cryptocurrency violently lost the price of 63,000 USD.
Now, while forecasts suggest the possibility of a prolonged sideways movement for a few weeks/base, the levels of the most important liquidations are consolidating.
In particular, in the range from $56,800 to $56,000 we find about $500 million of potential liquidations in case of a break to the downside, while around $67,300 we find over $2 billion of hypothetical bear liquidations. Above $71,500, another billion-dollar batch of short positions ready to be triggered.
While the drop in Bitcoin prices shifts the bias of forecasts more towards the downside, the open interest suggests that the situation is not as dramatic as it seems.
Despite the volatility, the indicator remained around 16 billion dollars yesterday, behaving in a completely different way compared to April 13th when a similar bearish price movement was recorded.
This makes us understand that the interest in speculations is still relatively medium/high and that the declines have not killed the market.
The funding rate of derivative markets is still positive despite being significantly reduced in recent days.
Furthermore, by looking at the indicator in its “weighted” version with the open interest, we can observe a significant movement on April 24th, where we saw the transition from negative territory to positive territory, a sign that bulls are paying a premium to keep their positions open.
This means that the bullish spirit has not yet left the market and there could be some unexpected surprises in the coming days.
To conclude the analysis, we report the chart of the “MVRV Z score” of Bitcoin, which serves to identify whether the cryptographic asset is overvalued or undervalued compared to its fair value.
Generally, with a ratio above 3.5 the currency could be overvalued, while with a ratio below 1.5 the opposite condition would occur.
At the current level, the chart shows that Bitcoin still has a lot of room to print green candles and at this moment it could be undervalued by the market.
