Bitcoin's Bullish Trajectory Should Resume After the Halving, Analysts Say

Global asset management firm Alliance Bernstein has explained that bitcoin’s bullish trajectory should resume after the upcoming halving event. The firm’s analysts described: “We believe it is always new demand catalysts that lead to bitcoin price appreciation in every cycle.”

Bernstein’s Analysts on Bitcoin’s Price Post-Halving

Global asset management firm Alliance Bernstein’s analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra shared their perspectives on the Bitcoin halving in a note to clients on Wednesday. They wrote:

We expect bitcoin’s bullish trajectory to resume post-halving, when the mining hash rates have adjusted and ETF inflows resume back (negative to flat flows last 10 days).

“Further, integration of spot bitcoin ETFs with wirehouses, RIAs [Registered Investment Advisors] will continue to provide structural demand for bitcoin, in our view. We continue to expect bitcoin to touch a cycle high of $150,000 by 2025,” the analysts added.

Bernstein predicted in November last year that the price of bitcoin could reach $150,000 by 2025. Chhugani stated at the time that this prediction is driven by optimism of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

According to the analysts at Bernstein, the Bitcoin halving event itself doesn’t necessarily lead to automatic price appreciation. They argue that the potential decrease in selling pressure from miners, due to reduced block rewards post-halving, is no longer a significant factor. They emphasized:

We believe it is always new demand catalysts that lead to bitcoin price appreciation in every cycle.

The Bernstein analysts detailed: “Historically, a bitcoin price breakout has always followed the halving event and sometimes a few months after halving. However, in the current 2024 cycle, the ETF approvals in January led to strong price appreciation pre-halving (BTC 50% up since leading to all-time highs). Only in the last 10 days with slower ETF inflows (and significant GBTC selling), has bitcoin corrected ~15%.”

“If the bitcoin price sees a material drawdown — back to $40,000 levels or lower — we could see a more drastic reduction in network hash rate,” they continued. “We believe the chances of this adverse scenario are lower, given structural ETF demand is far from done, in our view ($12 billion actual inflow YTD vs $80 billion inflow estimate over 2024-25).”