en.bitcoinsistemi.com
As the Bitcoin ($BTC) halving event approaches, speculators are likely to position themselves in advance, anticipating potential changes in the market. However, K33 CEO Torbjørn Bull Jenssen tells long-term investors that they should focus on the demand side of the market rather than the halving itself.
Jenssen said in his statement:
“We expect speculators to act in advance in this event, as in all halving events in the past. “On average, Bitcoin gained 14% in the month leading up to the halving, and we wouldn't be surprised if 2024 follows suit.”
According to analysts, Bitcoin's current inflation rate is around 1.8%, roughly the same as gold. This rate is expected to drop to 0.9% at the end of April with the halving. Jenssen explains that without a change in demand, the halving should trigger a price increase of only 0.9% in the first year after the halving, compared to the situation without the halving:
“With no change in demand, market value should remain constant. With 1.8% annual inflation in Bitcoin supply, the price would have to fall by 1.8% for the market value to remain the same. When inflation is 0.9%, the decrease should only be 0.9%.”
Although the halving is a supply event, Jenssen emphasizes that its effect on price must come from the demand side, as the pure supply effect is almost non-existent. He also notes that many Bitcoin holders have completed all their investments and do not have any more dollars to buy $BTC. So price is determined to some extent by the balance between marginal buyer and marginal seller:
“Doubling the price would be a significant move, but looking at past halvings and popular predictions such as the long-debunked but still used Stock-to-Flow model, optimists are expecting a 10x price increase. “This cannot be explained by the halving alone and will only happen if there is a large increase in demand, which is actually very unlikely.”
*This is not investment advice.