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Mow, now CEO of game developer studio Pixelmatic, bases his prediction on the current market setup and the upcoming Bitcoin halving event.
Ex-Blockstream Chief Strategy Officer Samson Mow predicts that Bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2025, stating in a recent interview with “What Bitcoin Did” podcast host Peter McCormack, “I think this year we hit a million. If not this year, next year, but it’s coming very soon.”
Mow pointed out that demand for Bitcoin is significantly outpacing supply, with ETFs alone pulling in around 3,500 to 4,000 bitcoins per day (or ~1.4 million BTC per year), while exchanges hold approximately 2.2 million bitcoins. He believes that this will rapidly drain the pool of available bitcoins.
Additionally, Mow introduced the concept of the “Veblen effect,” suggesting that as Bitcoin becomes more valuable, it will become more desirable due to its perceived value. He believes that once Bitcoin reaches parity with gold’s market cap, estimated at $450,000 to $500,000 per coin, it will cross a crucial threshold and begin to demonetize gold.
“Once you cross that Velin threshold, you start to demonetize gold. Because now this thing is gold. It’s multi-trillion dollars. We’re already trillion, but like 8 to 12 trillion dollar market cap,” Mow explained. “Then you start to eat into gold because people see it as equivalent to gold. It’s the new gold.”
Mow anticipates that media narratives will support this notion, further driving the shift from gold to Bitcoin. His prediction comes at a time when institutional interest in Bitcoin is at an all-time high, with major corporations and financial institutions adding the cryptocurrency to their balance sheets.
The upcoming Bitcoin halving, which will reduce the mining reward and further constrain supply, is also expected to contribute to a significant price surge. Mow’s extensive experience in the cryptocurrency industry and his former role at Blockstream lend credibility to his outlook, as the world navigates economic uncertainties and the potential for inflation.
Samson Mow’s “mega bearish” stance on Ethereum ETF approval and impact.
In a recent tweet thread, Samson Mow shared his thoughts on the potential approval of an Ethereum ETF by the SEC. He believes that regardless of the outcome, both approval and rejection scenarios are “mega bearish” for Ethereum.
Mow argues that the SEC has “footgunned themselves” by approving ETH futures alongside BTC futures, which rationally necessitates the approval of an ETH spot ETF for the same reasons as the BTC one.
Ethereum ETF approvals are further complicated by staking. What kind of commodity generates a yield? What kind of commodity ETF prints 70% of its supply out of thin air? What kind of commodity ETF tweaks its own “monetary” policy at will (uLtRasOuNd m0nEy)? Good luck Gary!
— Samson Mow (@Excellion) March 11, 2024
Mow questions the nature of a commodity that generates a yield, prints 70% of its supply out of thin air, and tweaks its own “monetary” policy at will.
Additionally, Mow believes that the current price appreciation of Ethereum is purely speculative, driven by crypto traders and Ethereum insiders hoping for ETF approval, rather than genuine capital inflows.
He predicts that if an Ethereum spot ETF is not approved, speculators will sell, while if it is approved, existing holders will sell, and no one will buy due to the ETF’s structurally defective nature, as it would not provide staking yields and would incur management fees, resulting in an automatic loss of 5-6% every year for ETF shareholders.