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- Bitcoin price remains range-bound with horizontal consolidation as halving countdown continues.
- As markets lean south, BTC could make a 3% drop to $50,000 before the next leg up.
- The bearish thesis will be invalidated if the price clears and closes above $52,985.
Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to ride on the exchange-traded funds (ETF) theme, as markets count the days to the halving, 52 days out (just about seven to eight) weeks). Meanwhile, Microstrategy has taken advantage of the current lull in the market to grow its BTC portfolio with yet another volumnous purchase for the second time in the month.
Also Read: Week Ahead: Bitcoin threatens a drop, altcoins in shambles
Crypto ETF FAQs
What is an ETF?
An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is an investment vehicle or an index that tracks the price of an underlying asset. ETFs can not only track a single asset, but a group of assets and sectors. For example, a Bitcoin ETF tracks Bitcoin’s price. ETF is a tool used by investors to gain exposure to a certain asset.
Is Bitcoin futures ETF approved?
Yes. The first Bitcoin futures ETF in the US was approved by the US Securities & Exchange Commission in October 2021. A total of seven Bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved, with more than 20 still waiting for the regulator’s permission. The SEC says that the cryptocurrency industry is new and subject to manipulation, which is why it has been delaying crypto-related futures ETFs for the last few years.
Is Bitcoin spot ETF approved?
Bitcoin spot ETF has been approved outside the US, but the SEC is yet to approve one in the country. After BlackRock filed for a Bitcoin spot ETF on June 15, the interest surrounding crypto ETFs has been renewed. Grayscale – whose application for a Bitcoin spot ETF was initially rejected by the SEC – got a victory in court, forcing the US regulator to review its proposal again. The SEC’s loss in this lawsuit has fueled hopes that a Bitcoin spot ETF might be approved by the end of the year.
MicroStrategy buys 3,000 Bitcoin just 52 days before BTC halving
Fifty-two days to the halving, business intelligence firm MicroStrategy has added 3,000 BTC tokens worth $155 million to its portfolio, according to an announcement by the company’s CEO Michael Saylor on social media platform X. The average purchase price per token in the latest investment is $51,813.
MicroStrategy has acquired an additional 3,000 BTC for ~$155 million at an average price of $51,813 per #bitcoin. As of 2/25/24, @MicroStrategy now hodls 193,000 $BTC acquired for ~$6.09 billion at an average price of $31,544 per bitcoin. $MSTR https://t.co/micudbYf3P
— Michael Saylor⚡️ (@saylor) February 26, 2024
On-chain tool Lookonchain has corroborated the revelation, indicating that with MicroStrategy’s BTC portfolio growing to 193,000, the portfolio is now valued at $9.9 billion, with an average purchase price of $31,544. MicroStrategy already has over $3.8 billion in unrealized profit at the current price
MicroStrategy bought another 3,000 $BTC($155M) at $51,813!#MicroStrategy currently holds 193K $BTC($9.9B), and the average buying price is $31,544.
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) February 26, 2024
At current prices, the profit has exceeded $3.8B! pic.twitter.com/51ccSstfLv
As of February 21, MicroStrategy boasted a stark 190,000 BTC tokens in its portfolio, which brought its market capitalization to around $12 billion. With the latest move, the firm is even closer to the S&P 500 list than it was then with Nasdaq showing a market cap of $13.4 billion as of 16:00 GMT.
Find out the threshold for listing on the S&P 500, the list of America’s largest 500 publicly traded firms, here.
Notably, the development comes hours after MicroStrategy’s X account was hacked, leading to approximately $440,000 in losses from unsuspecting users. Specifically, it happened that the bad actors posted a phishing message on the firm’s X account, touting “$MSTR tokens” up for grabs.
0xe7645b8672b28a17dd0d650a5bf89539c9aa28da
— ZachXBT (@zachxbt) February 26, 2024
~$440K stolen from the compromise so far
On-chain detective ZachXBT confirmed the attack, where users following the malicious link to claim the “$MSTR token” were instead redirected to a fake MicroStrategy website. Here, they received a prompt to link their crypto wallets and grant permissions. MicroStrategy has since taken back control of their X account and has taken down the fake message. One of the victims lost approximately $420,000 in different tokens, Etherscan data shows.
Bitcoin price prognosis as MicroStrategy makes headlines
Bitcoin price is trading absent directional bias, trapped within the range of $52,996 and $49,237. BTC is already overbought with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) position above 70. The price is at high risk of a correction, likely dropping 3% to the $50,000 psychological level.
BTC/USDT 3-day chart
Conversely, based on other technicals, the upside potential is also strong with the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicating a correction may not be due just yet. This is because the SOPR remains below 1, at 0.91, as a 30-day moving average (MA).
For the layperson, this ratio suggests that BTC holders who are sitting on unrealized profits are not showing any intention to cash in on their gains so far.
Besides the SOPR, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) still show a strong presence of bulls, which can be seen with thee red histogram bars.
Increased buying pressure could see Bitcoin price clear the range high at $52,985, opening the expanse for a continuation of the climb to $55,000. In a highly bullish case, the BTC rally extrapolates to $60,000. Such a move would constitute a 12% climb above current levels and could send BTC into the supply zone between $60,050 and $67,789.
This would give it a chance of retaking its $69,000 all-time high recorded in November 2021. The first sign would be a break and close above $64,014, the mean threshold of the range.