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Deutsche Bank Research's recent analysis reveals a cautious investor sentiment, with over 33% anticipating Bitcoin to fall below $20,000 by January 2025.
Bitcoin’s recent 20% decline to under $39,000 from its peak, along with a survey of 2,000 participants from the US, UK, and Eurozone, underscores concerns in the cryptocurrency market. Despite pessimism, 15% foresee a potential recovery, projecting Bitcoin to reach $40,000 to $75,000 by year-end.
The surge to $49,000 on January 11, driven by excitement over new spot Bitcoin ETFs, was followed by sell-offs, currently placing Bitcoin around $40,000. Deutsche Bank analysts highlight the role of these ETFs in institutionalizing Bitcoin, but note most inflows are from retail investors.
The investment landscape sees $4 billion entering new spot Bitcoin ETFs, primarily managed by BlackRock and Fidelity, counterbalanced by a $2.8 billion withdrawal from Grayscale. JPMorgan analysts caution against overly optimistic expectations for Bitcoin ETFs.
READ MORE: Bitcoin: Analyst Predicts Correction Amidst Historical Market Patterns
Examining historical patterns, Bitcoin’s cyclical nature is evident in a 25% retracement pre-halving in 2016. Past cycles indicate a bull market peak the year following a halving, suggesting a potential peak in 2025. The market trajectory resembles the 2019 fractal, hinting at a 2024 Q1 downturn amid pre-halving hype and spot Bitcoin ETF approval.