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Historically, September is the bloodiest month for Bitcoin (BTC) bulls. This time, things might be even worse, analyst Miles Deutscher says. Crypto markets, especially Bitcoin (BTC) and large-cap altcoins, will be struggling with a controversial macroeconomical context, regulatory uncertainty and massive "unlocks" of some popular tokens.
"We have to be wary": Analyst on Bitcoin (BTC) in early Q4, 2023
In September 2023, the apathetic and bored Bitcoin (BTC) market has to struggle with a "significant supply overhang." Amplified by Bitcoin ETF verdicts delays, this could bring big problems for bulls, analyst Miles Deutscher says in yesterday's market outlook.
My full September market outlook + thoughts.
— Miles Deutscher (@milesdeutscher) September 1, 2023
Read this if you're feeling lost, confused, or simply want to know what's coming next.👇
Now that August is over, it's time to look ahead.
It was, all-in-all, a poor month (-11.2% for $BTC, and significantly worse for many alts).…
As analysts noticed repeatedly, for many years, September brought pain to Bitcoiners. In 2023, besides market exhaustion, traders should expect the release of Bitcoin (BTC) and many other cryptocurrencies seized by U.S. law enforcers from the collapsed exchange FTX. Also, many massive unlocks, including Apecoin (APE), Aptos (APT), dYdX (DYDX) and Optimism (OP), are set to happen in September.
In other context, markets would easily absorb these potential "sell walls" on large-cap altcoin pairs, but in early Q4, 2023, the situation looks too dangerous for bulls:
In normal market conditions, this sell pressure would be easily absorbed. But in this low liquidity environment, it doesn't take the same volume it once did to affect price. So in absence of a renewed interest from market participants (likely via an ETF development), we have to be wary
The short lifespan of the Bitcoin (BTC) pump triggered by Grayscale's court win was the best indicator of market apathy to Deutscher. As covered by U.Today previously, the euphoria had only lasted for two days before the Bitcoin (BTC) price retraced to levels unseen since mid-June.
Bitcoiners should care about Sept. 13 and Sept. 20
Besides "crypto-native" catalysts, Deutscher recommends to closely watch upcoming macroeconomics triggers. Namely, he recommends to concentrate on the Sept. 13 Consumers Price Index (CPI) release and the Sept. 20 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Usually, both indicators affect the price of Bitcoin (BTC) and major altcoins in either direction.
At the same time, the analyst's outlook also demonstrates cautious optimism: He foresees that buyers will be interested in accumulating Bitcoin (BTC) at a certain level. Both $25,000 and $23,000 look like "levels of interest" to him, but he also would not be surprised by Bitcoin (BTC) going lower.
By press time, Bitcoin (BTC) is changing hands at $25,833 on major spot exchanges.