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The Bitcoin (BTC) price has increased significantly since June 15, reaching a new yearly high on June 23. The price has fallen slightly since.
The upward movement goes a long way in suggesting that the cycle bottom for BTC is in and that the price will soon accelerate its rate of increase toward new highs.
Bitcoin’s Bullish Week Takes It to Long-Term Resistance
The weekly time frame technical analysis shows that the BTC price has reached the $30,000 horizontal resistance area. This is one of the most important horizontal levels for Bitcoin since it has intermittently acted as both support and resistance since the beginning of the year.
On June 23, the Bitcoin price reached a new yearly high of $31,431. Even though it decreased afterward, the weekly close was also the highest of the year.
The weekly RSI is also bullish. The RSI is a momentum indicator traders use to evaluate whether a market is overbought or oversold and to determine whether to accumulate or sell an asset. Readings above 50 and an upward trend suggest that bulls still have an advantage, while readings below 50 indicate the opposite. The RSI is above 50 and increasing. The indicator bounced at the 50 line two weeks ago, suggesting a bullish trend.
Additionally, it is worth mentioning that the Bitcoin Futures Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) $BITO had its biggest weekly inflow in a year. The ETF has given a nearly 60% return so far this year.
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Will BTC Price Decisively Break Out Above $30,000?
A closer look at the daily time frame gives a decisively bullish outlook. The reasons for this come from the wave count and the price action.
Technical analysts employ the Elliott Wave theory as a means to identify recurring long-term price patterns and investor psychology, which helps them determine the direction of a trend.
The price movement shows that the BTC price broke out from a descending parallel channel. Since such channels usually contain corrective structures, a breakout from the channel was the most likely scenario.
The wave count supports this possibility since the movement inside the channel looks like a completed W-X-Y corrective structure (red). Since the previous increase is a five-wave upward movement (white), the breakout from the channel suggests that the correction is complete.
Thus, the ensuing breakout is likely part of another five-wave increase.
In the longer term, this is likely a wave three (black) for the entire upward movement that began in November 2022. Giving waves one and three a 1:1 ratio would lead to a high near $42,700. If wave three extends and reaches the 1:1.61 length of wave one, the price can reach a high of $53,600.
Despite this bullish long-term BTC price prediction, a movement below the wave two low of $24,800 (red line) will mean the trend is still bearish.