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Day Trading Bitcoin: Analysis of price

source-logo  en.cryptonomist.ch 03 April 2023 16:26, UTC

In this article we are going to look at what the latest news on Bitcoin daily trading is and analyze possible future scenarios related to the price of the main cryptocurrency on the market.

Will Bitcoin manage to cross the fateful $30k threshold? Will we see a new low in the coming months below the November 2022 low with a target below $15k?

Let’s find out together.


Price update on Bitcoin’s daily trading

In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin has lost 2.33% failing the $30k breakout attempt in the previous days.

At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is $27,790, volumes in the last 24 hours are about $13.7 billion, and have increased by 30%, which is quite normal considering that over the weekend the activities of financial market participants decreases significantly.

Market capitalization at $537.5 billion and market dominance at 46.2%.

Analyzing the price action of Bitcoin’s daily trading, we can say that we are currently compressed in a range of $26.5k to $29k, with decidedly low volumes.

On Binance, this volumetric trend is more pronounced than on the other cryptocurrency exchanges: this probably occurred due to the end of the 0 fee promotion on the BTC-USDT trading pair.

As for the derivatives market, open interest on Bitcoin futures has reached the $11 billion mark: Binance, CME, Bybit, OKex, and Bitget share the largest share of volumes on these markets.

On the liquidation front, there have been more Long liquidations rather than Short liquidations in the last 24 hours, although the numbers are not very significant, hence there could easily be a reversal.

Analysis and prediction of Bitcoin’s future prices

Bitcoin is currently in a perfect equilibrium zone.

The fear of a continuum of restrictive policies by the Federal Reserve is scaring investors, who could see a further rise in interest rates, resulting in a devaluation of riskier financial securities such as stocks and crypto assets.

On the other hand, the risk of a US debt crisis benefits Bitcoin, which seems to have established itself over the years as a “store of value” asset, which means it is capable of maintaining the nominal value of the investment in times of uncertainty and fears in the markets.

This provides food for thought when we consider that Bitcoin, along with all the rest of the altcoins, represents one of the most volatile assets with considerable inherent risk.

This narrative in the last period benefited Bitcoin, which took advantage of the opportunity to record a rally starting on 11 March 2023. Since that day there has been a price increase of almost 50%.

Bitcoin is currently in a well-defined trading range: a breakout of $30k, or a breakdown of $26.5k could trigger a distinct trend.

If a breakout of either of these levels does not occur, Bitcoin is likely to continue this lateralization phase with low volumes.

If there is a break to the upside, the first potential target is the $35k level, a level that served as support in early 2022 before it triggered the bear market that has guided us throughout the year.

Should there be a downward break, the likely targets are progressively: $25k, $20k and finally $15k. A further decline below these prices would confirm the continuation of this crypto winter.

However, there is no worrying data at the moment: Bitcoin remains above the 50-period moving average on the daily chart.

On the weekly time frame, it is interesting to note that following the rally that began on 11 March, the main cryptocurrency has remained above the 10- and 5-period moving averages.

Usually a rally followed by a short period of laterality is more likely to be a continuation of the trend rather than a reversal.

There is something to consider though, which is that the macroeconomic scenario seems to be one of the most complicated in the last decade: war, debt crisis, inflation, and restrictive central bank policies are factors determined within the price action on Bitcoin’s daily trading.

We cannot conduct analysis without taking into account these variables that could completely turn the tables.

To sum up, the situation at the moment is stable. an upward or downward movement of Bitcoin accompanied by high volumes could trigger certain scenarios, but these must necessarily integrate with the macroeconomic situation worldwide.

Bitcoin daily trading: analysis of top addresses

One of the most interesting things to note regarding the daily trading of Bitcoin is the evolution of top addresses in the Bitcoin protocol.

As we know, it is very important to track and analyze the movement of addresses that contain multiple BTC (so-called “whales”) in order to get a clue about the cryptocurrency’s price movement.

According to Glassnode’s data, regarding the number of addresses with a balance of more than 10k coins, we can see that:

  • since Q2 2022 there has been a sharp increase in the number of these entities;
  • the number of these entities grew in parallel with the decline in BTC prices;
  • since November 2021, the month in which there was the last all-time high in BTC prices, there has been an increase of more than 30 units of these kinds of addresses.

Even though most experts agree that we are still in the midst of a bear market, the data on addresses containing more units seems to suggest that an accumulation is underway.

This does not mean that we could be celebrating a continuation of Bitcoin’s rally any time soon, but rather that larger players have taken advantage of the sale period to shop for coins.

It will be interesting to see how this metric evolves in the coming months.

It is worth remembering that Bitcoin’s halving is approaching: there are 381 days, or rather 56,270 blocks, until the next halving of miners’ rewards for mining a block.

Historically, that date has been good for Bitcoin prices, which began the various bull market periods precisely as a result of these updates.