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Although many traders were claiming that Bitcoin was dead and buried while it was in freefall for most of 2018, others stayed optimistic, and some may soon find themselves profiting handsomely from buying right at the end of the bear market. Here’s a rundown of six (maybe seven) analysts who successfully called the bottom for Bitcoin at around $3100.
1. Joe Lubin
The co-founder of Ethereum (an asset that performed even worse than BTC throughout 2018) claimed that the ‘crypto-bottom’ was in on December 21. While there wasn’t any technical analysis of particular assets given, Lubin’s position was based on an assessment of the general sentiment of the crypto space. He claimed that there was an excessive amount of FUD floating around, and this couldn’t last for much longer. His declaration that the bottom was in also seemed to be a defensive appeal, as much as a prediction.
I am calling the cryptobottom of 2018. This bottom is marked by an epic amount of fear, uncertainty, and doubt from our friends in the 4th and crypto-5th estates.
— Joseph Lubin (@ethereumJoseph) December 21, 2018
ConsenSys remains healthy and is engaging in a rebalancing of priorities and activities which started about nine months ago.
— Joseph Lubin (@ethereumJoseph) December 21, 2018
Lubin is the head of ETH production studio ConsenSys, which had a particularly bad time amidst the ongoing bear market. ConsenSys hit headlines towards the end of 2018 due to financial difficulties that meant it had to lay off over half of its staff, and many observers were speculating about the future of the project. Lubin didn’t give up hope, though, and he saw brighter things in the future for crypto and for ConsenSys.
2. Pomp
Popular crypto VC Anthony 'Pomp' Pompliano has been one of the most bullish figures in crypto for a while now, but the bearishness of 2018's market meant that even he had to face the possibility of things getting "really, really ugly". Way back in August, he made the unpopular declaration that the Bitcoin price would see $3000 before it saw $10k. He made this case again on CNBC in November, as the community was finally preparing itself for a turnaround.
I've revised my Bitcoin outlook after spending more time digging through data than I would like to admit. I'm still very bullish, but it may take longer than anticipated: https://t.co/TYEuoBaChh pic.twitter.com/yjF0VRt5Ey
— Pomp 🌪 (@APompliano) August 24, 2018
I went on @SquawkCNBC to talk about Bitcoin and what people should understand about the recent price movements.
— Pomp 🌪 (@APompliano) November 26, 2018
Key takeaway: Relax, everything is going to be ok.https://t.co/xZooAx2NfM
3. Zissou
Popular crypto trader @ZeusZissou claimed that the crypto market was on its way back up on December 17, 2018. His technical analysis for this particular evaluation wasn’t particularly extensive, but he seemed to have some amount of confidence behind his words, which were quick and to the point.
BOTTOM
— Zissou™ (@ZeusZissou) December 17, 2018
If everyone and their grandmother have bids at $2.5k, chances are they’re either not gonna get it or get rekt by greed before we get there.
— Zissou™ (@ZeusZissou) December 17, 2018
Plus low volume selloff failing and bear fractal failed to create a lower low.
Good thing Twitter bias does not dictate price.
Zissou warned that anyone waiting on a bottom of $2.5k, which was apparently a lot of people, would be disappointed and end up having to buy much higher than they wanted to. At the time, responses to his call were mixed, but it’s now hard to deny that these tweets have aged incredibly well.
4. The Crypto Dog
@TheCryptoDog was another popular crypto trader who saw the light at the end of the tunnel, first suggesting a turnaround might be happening on December 16, 2018. While not definitively calling a bottom, the account's technical analysis suggested there was some bullish divergence, and that the $3100 level would prove to be an important new support.
Bullish at resistance?
— The Crypto Dog📈 (@TheCryptoDog) December 16, 2018
Don't mind if I do. pic.twitter.com/FuOMkVy5XF
5. Michael Moro
Michael Moro, an analyst at digital asset trading firm Genesis Trading, claimed that $3000 would be the turning point for Bitcoin. He made this call as early as November 23, when BTC was trading just below $3700.
In case you missed it, I got the opportunity to go on @SquawkCNBC yesterday morning to talk crypto. Clearly a lot of work to do, but definitely thankful for the opportunity to be on:https://t.co/8uyqKLqMX0
— Michael Moro (@michaelmoro) November 24, 2018
While the bottom was consistently being called the whole way down by many traders, Moro was brave enough to claim that it would keep dropping, even as it looked to be testing the $4k level again. The Bitcoin price actually rose as high as $4200 a few days after Moro made his prediction on CNBC’s Squawk Box show, but then dipped again over the following week, and BTC eventually found support almost exactly where he said it would. This vindicating both Moro and, for once, CNBC’s notoriously inaccurate crypto analysis.
6. Willy Woo
Throughout 2018, popular investor and analyst Willy Woo was predicting a much lower bottom than most in the crypto community. His assessments were frequently met with hostility from many observers, who believed that this kind of negative sentiment must be selfishly motivated in some way, and many of whom still saw BTC closing out the year above $10,000.
Footnote [2]:
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) October 29, 2018
Before the CryptoTwitter troll army erupts, the data is bearish on so many touch points, we gotta be realistic in the medium term. Long term however Bitcoin is on the base of an adoption curve that will continue to drive one of the biggest bull runs in history.
Replies to my 2018 tweets went from denial to anger to unengagement to now the first signs of acceptance. Acceptance being the last stage of grief is another sign for me that the bear is starting to near its end.
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) December 8, 2018
Around early December, Woo claimed that the feelings of the community had changed. Many who had previously opposed him were now tending to agree, or just to stay silent, indicating acceptance of BTC’s fate. As was pointed out in Joe Lubin’s analysis, market sentiment generally has a lower limit, much like prices have support levels.
When opinions of BTC reached their most negative point, this was a sign that a turnaround was on the way, and Woo called it at pretty much the perfect time (despite claiming in January that BTC could end up dropping below $3k again...).
7. Tone Vays (???)
Former Wall Street trader Tone Vays is known for going against the grain in the crypto space. His analyses of the market have generally been much more negative than the vast majority of the community, and he has frequently been ridiculed for it.
When BTC hit its yearly low in the middle of October 2018 and many were calling the bottom, Vays made his first and only trade of the year - taking out a short position on the top crypto. Despite the price rising shortly after this trade, he was vindicated a few months later and presumably did well from this pessimistic prediction.
Trading #Bitcoin - The bounce off $3,500 has already faded, is $3,200 now the expected target? Can the Bear Market end this Year? let's have an objective look at the $BTCUSD Charts.https://t.co/BzzeUJrKsZ
— Tone Vays [#UnderstandBit] (@ToneVays) November 27, 2018
Towards the end of November, Vays claimed that the bear market’s end was still not in sight, and he made a few assessments calling the BTC bottom as being somewhere between $3k and $3.5k. However, Vays has since claimed that he still doesn’t think the bear market is over, and as recently as April 2019 he has suggested that $1.5k would not be an unrealistic price target for Bitcoin. Despite this, he is still bullish for the long-term.
So, does Vays only get partial credit for his call? Or should we go along with his cautious approach, and try not to get fooled by what could be another false breakout? As with most things in the crypto market, only time will tell...