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Bitcoin (BTC) – the top dog crypto – recently saw a setback of about 1.2 percent within 24 hours. Such tweaks will automatically prompt crypto folks to surmise a possible price plunge. Nonetheless, bitcoin bulls are suggesting that the bull market is not yet done for.
PlanB and his bitcoin S2F model
One of the bitcoin bulls who goes by the moniker PlanB believes as such and even tweeted claiming that the second leg of the BTC bull market is on its way. Alongside it is a graphical data detailing what he meant.
In his tweet, he noted that both bitcoin stock-to-flow and on-chain signal a second leg of the bull market. Talking about the BTC’s current price, PlanB suggested that bitcoin’s price as of late is under the white S2F(X) line adding that the on-chain signal is not yet red (referring to his tweeted graph).
Both #bitcoin S2F (white line) and on-chain signal (color, not red yet) still indicating a 2nd leg of this bull market. pic.twitter.com/ZthR7sd0BA
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) August 17, 2021
Still, on the analyst’s graph, it can be observed that its target price for the fourth cycle is pretty much above the $100,000 mark and this could be reached anytime in the next three years provided that everything with bitcoin goes according to plan. Further, PlanB is confident in saying that bitcoin’s price has a lot further to go adding it will hit $100,000 and then $288,000. Sure, one would argue that this statement of PlanB’s pretty bold, but one has to consider the price graph that he tweeted has been pretty much on point so far.
Other crypto experts agree
It’s also worth noting that the said graph projects BTC’s price to break through the $98,000 mark in the next three months as he jokingly described it as a “worst-case scenario.” Fellow analysts seem to agree with PlanB’s bullish forecast. One of them is Lark Davis, a New Zealand-based crypto pundit.
One might also question the precision of such price projection. S2F Multiple – a daily bitcoin telemetry data tracker – has been keeping an eye on both BTC’s actual and predicted prices. In its recent tweet, it claims to have registered a deviation of –0.83.
S2F model flawed
CryptoQuant CEO Ki-Young Ju, on the other hand, had a different perspective about PlanB’s S2F model. He believes that the said model is flawed in terms of the demand side. He explains that the model is based on scarcity adding that scarcity is about the supply side and went on to say that the price of bitcoin as of late greatly deviates from the price predicted by the S2F model.
(EMBED THIS TWEET HERE)
Stock-to-Flow Multiple (463d)
— S2F Multiple (@s2fmultiple) August 17, 2021
2021-08-16, 23:59 UTC
ln(actual / model)
Actual price: $45,984.72
Model price: $105,007.00
S2F multiple: -0.83 pic.twitter.com/F7tfEMiRIP
He then took notice of the aggregate BTC reserves for all exchanges which have both supply/demand-side factors. He said if people want to sell bitcoin, they would send it to exchanges. If not, they (mostly whales) would withdraw from exchanges to custodian wallets.
Ju added that PlanB’s model can be more precise if the said bitcoin bull would add some variables to see the demand-side factors.