September inflation accelerated to 3.7%, while core CPI exceeded expectations at 2.6%, despite payroll growth of only 29,000. On October 28, the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75–4.00% in a 10–2 vote. Both dissenters favored an increase.
At the report’s snapshot, futures priced roughly an 80–85% probability of a 25-basis-point hike on December 9. Those expectations accompanied a broader tightening cycle: eight G10 central banks had raised rates over six months, although Binance Research’s measure of tightening momentum had eased from its July peak.
The research identified a similar slowdown before the previous cycle’s crypto recovery, which began ahead of rate cuts. October’s decline also followed a 6.1% fall in October 2025, marking a second consecutive negative October.
Stablecoin rules advanced alongside CFTC and SEC proceedings
The OCC finalized its GENIUS Act rule on October 21, setting reserve, redemption and risk-management standards for payment stablecoin issuers. The rule takes effect on January 18, 2027.
Other regulatory work proceeded through separate channels. On October 5, the CFTC opened crypto rulemaking through an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking. Its proposal would limit the on-platform requirement to retail trades involving leverage, margin or financing.
The public comment period for the SEC’s proposed Regulation Crypto Assets closed on October 20. These agency developments took place while the CLARITY Act remained stalled in the Senate.
AI spending exceeded cash generation at five major companies
Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle spent a combined US$230 billion on capital expenditure in the third quarter of 2026—2.2 times the year-earlier level and more than their US$199 billion in operating cash flow. Binance Research reported that combined free cash flow had turned negative, its dataset’s first negative quarter, versus positive US$61 billion a year earlier.
Equity reactions varied sharply. Alphabet fell 12.6% in the session following its results, while Meta lost 7.0%. Both had raised capital-spending guidance while generating negative free cash flow. Amazon closed 1.4% lower after recovering from a 7% after-hours drop, and Microsoft finished flat.
Across October, Alphabet declined 19% and Meta 15%, compared with a 3% fall for Amazon and a 2% gain for Microsoft. $BTC traded within the same risk-off environment, breaking below US$80,000 on October 24 and October 29 as technology shares weakened.
ETF withdrawals contrasted with inference and tokenized-equity growth
Fund withdrawals were another feature of October’s crypto market trends: spot $BTC ETFs recorded about US$516 million in net outflows, reversing September’s US$2.6 billion inflow. Ether ETFs lost about US$1.6 billion, their largest monthly net outflow of 2026.
Strategy also slowed its Bitcoin accumulation, purchasing 851 $BTC before pausing purchases in favor of STRC buybacks.
Elsewhere, activity expanded. OpenRouter handled about 25 trillion tokens daily, roughly 34 times its year-earlier volume. Daily token traffic to the seven crypto inference providers tracked by Binance Research increased about 7.5 times during 2026 to 226 billion. Their share remained near 1%, with annual revenue at listed prices of about US$20 million.
Tokenized-equity platform bStocks reached US$1 billion in assets under management on October 15, within 125 days of launch—about half the time Ondo took. Its on-chain utilization, measured as DeFi total value locked divided by active assets under management, reached 18.54%, against a 13.91% industry average. Trading outside U.S. market hours accounted for 56% of its volume.
Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.
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