Morgan Stanley’s Coinbase downgrade cuts price target from $258 to $120

Morgan Stanley downgraded Coinbase Global (COIN) from Equal Weight to Underweight on November 2, 2026, cutting its price target from $258 to $120. Analyst Michael Cyprys paired the rating change with sharply lower earnings forecasts as the bank lost confidence in a near-term recovery.

Key takeaways

• Morgan Stanley’s $120 target falls below Coinbase’s October 30 close of $143.54.
• The bank cut its 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimate by 47%.
• Its valuation now uses a 12x EBITDA multiple, down from 20x.

Morgan Stanley’s Coinbase downgrade reflects weaker recovery expectations

Weak trading trends and a soft revenue outlook drove Cyprys’s decision to lower Coinbase’s rating. The bank’s revised target is below the stock’s $143.54 closing price on October 30, 2026.

Morgan Stanley’s downgrade of Coinbase follows disappointing third-quarter results released on October 30. The bank still views the exchange as well positioned in its market, citing its expanded product range, even as its financial projections have weakened.

Lower earnings estimates meet a lower valuation multiple

Morgan Stanley reduced Coinbase’s revenue forecasts by 28% for 2027 and 18% for 2028. Its cuts to adjusted EBITDA estimates were larger: 47% for 2027 and 25% for 2028.

The bank now forecasts $2.4 billion in normalized EBITDA for 2028, putting that projection 14% below the 2025 level. That comparison places its expected earnings recovery below the company’s earlier performance, rather than above it.

The Coinbase price target cut also reflects a valuation change. Morgan Stanley reduced the EBITDA multiple used to value the exchange from 20x to 12x. Applying a lower multiple to reduced earnings estimates compounds the effect on the resulting price target.

Trading weakness adds to pressure after third-quarter results

A major security breach at Binance increased uncertainty across the crypto sector and contributed to declining trading volumes. Lower trading activity weighs on exchange revenue and remains an important factor in Coinbase’s stock valuation.

The weaker trading backdrop sits alongside the disappointing third-quarter earnings. Several other banks also lowered their Coinbase price targets in late October.

Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.