Hyperliquid Price Analysis: Can Falling Open Interest Trigger a HYPE Short Squeeze?

Hyperliquid’s $HYPE hovered near $76.50 on October 26, with traders watching a thinning derivatives market for signs of a squeeze. CoinStats put open interest at roughly $3.09 billion, a 10.92% decline over 30 days. For price analysis, the decline establishes reduced exposure, not which traders exited.

Hyperliquid Open Interest Falls 10.92% Without a Confirmed Squeeze

At 09:56 UTC, HypeBasis placed $HYPE at $77.08, with $1.61 billion in open interest on Hyperliquid’s perpetual market. The price had gained 1.77% over the previous 24 hours, although contract-denominated open interest fell 1.21% during the same period.

That gap points to traders reducing their positions as prices recovered. It does not, however, establish whether short sellers were rushing to exit. The distinction matters, as every new futures contract involves both a buyer and a seller. When existing contracts are closed, open interest falls, but the figures do not reveal which side initiated those exits.

For $HYPE, the price recovery and shrinking open interest leave an important question unanswered: whether traders are simply unwinding leverage or whether short covering is beginning to influence the market.

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Funding, Liquidations, and CVD Show Limited Short-Squeeze Pressure

CoinStats reported a positive funding rate of 0.0037% every eight hours, while approximately 65% of Binance trading accounts held long positions. Its liquidation snapshot showed $96,920 in forced closures, with longs accounting for 72.1%. That imbalance places recent liquidation pressure on buyers rather than short sellers.

Order flow offers a similar caution. Taker-buy shares reached 46.9% on Binance perpetuals and 48.9% on Bybit, indicating more aggressive selling than buying on both venues. Yet these are derivative figures, not spot cumulative volume delta (CVD).

They cannot establish whether spot buyers were absorbing the selling. The chart adds another detail. On October 24, Binance futures briefly touched $74.41, moving below the $74.81 support reference before recovering.

That move swept liquidity below support, but the rebound alone does not verify $HYPE accumulation. Without confirmed spot CVD or an accelerating wave of short liquidations, the distinction between routine deleveraging and short covering remains unresolved.

$HYPE Breakout Hinges on $77.28 as a 9.92M Token Unlock Nears

Hyperliquid’s trading figures also have a business backdrop. DefiLlama recorded $79.65 million in 30-day protocol fees and $63.49 million in revenue for Hyperliquid. Those are measures of activity, not direct proof of $HYPE purchases. Meanwhile, a scheduled November 6 unlock will release 9.92 million tokens.

Against that backdrop, $77.28 remains the first resistance level. A sustained reclaim would bring $79.17 into view, with $81.44 beyond it if spot buying strengthens and short liquidations accelerate.

Below the market, $74.81 remains the support marker. Losing it would turn attention to $72.28 and then $68.81, the downside levels identified for this $HYPE setup.

Hyperliquid Market Indicators

Bullish Case

Reclaiming $77.28 and $79.17 could expose $81.44, provided spot buying strengthens.

Bearish Case

However, losing $74.81 could expose $72.28, followed by $68.81.

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