Meanwhile, the move followed a package of measures announced by the RBI on 10 October. These included a special dollar window for state-owned oil marketing companies to divert their demand away from the spot market, tighter rules on foreign-exchange derivatives, and a 20% Foreign Exchange Risk Reserve requirement on certain derivative transactions exceeding $2 million.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra have said that the measures are to reduce speculation and excessive volatility and not to peg or fix the exchange rate. State-run banks were reported to have sold dollars, on behalf of the central bank, supporting the currency’s recovery.
US September CPI: How Inflation Data Could Impact Bitcoin and $XRP
Today’s US CPI report is set to be a key market driver for Bitcoin ($BTC) and $XRP as investors assess the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. Global USD price movements feed into the Indian crypto market through the USD/INR rate. Market expectations for the September report have been focused on a possible monthly increase of approximately 0.5–0.6% for the headline index and 0.2% for core.
A higher-than-expected CPI reading could drive the US dollar higher, raise the chances of stricter monetary policy, and put pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin and $XRP. Meanwhile, weaker inflation data could improve risk appetite and provide some relief to cryptocurrency prices.
How Rupee Appreciation Affects Crypto Prices in India
$BTC and $XRP trade mainly in USD globally, while Indian traders settle in INR. So, the local price of crypto in INR is the product of the USD crypto price and the current USD/INR exchange rate. As the rupee has appreciated and USD/INR declines toward 94.95, the same dollar price of either asset converts into fewer rupees.
For instance, if $BTC/USD rose by 1% and USD/INR fell by 2%, then the converted $BTC/INR price would decrease by approximately 1%, before considering fees and market spreads. Therefore, the recent INR appreciation has decreased the impact of dollar-based gains and amplified the effect of dollar-denominated losses for Indian crypto traders.
Bitcoin and $XRP Price Outlook: Can Rupee Strength Offset Crypto Gains?
The September CPI release today will influence global risk sentiment and the USD prices of Bitcoin and $XRP. At press time, $BTC was trading at $83,216.33, and $XRP at $1.37. If the CPI print is positive and boosts risk assets, the higher rupee will dampen the gains on $BTC/USD or $XRP/USD.
On the other hand, if cryptocurrencies drop in dollars and the rupee keeps gaining strength, INR losses will be higher. Liquidity conditions and any further RBI actions will also play a role in addition to the local exchange premiums.
Traders should monitor the US CPI report, movements in the USD/INR exchange rate, and any further RBI measures. The combined impact of these factors will determine whether Indian crypto prices rise or fall in rupee terms, even when Bitcoin and $XRP move in the opposite direction in dollar markets.
Related: $BTC Stalls After Soft US PPI as Rupee Nears ₹95.5: $BTC Dip for Indian Traders?
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