XRP RSI Hasn’t Been This Oversold Since $1.05: What Happens Next?

The short-term $XRP RSI on the 4-hour timeframe has dropped to levels the market last saw when prices stood at around $1.05.

$XRP started October on a weak note, falling from $1.52 on Oct. 6 to around $1.41 at the time of writing. This represents a decline of about 7% in just a few days and came as a broader selloff hit the crypto market. The drop also pushed $XRP below the $1.45 level, which had previously provided support.

As the downtrend persists, market analyst CryptoInsightUK revealed that the decline has pushed the $XRP RSI on the 4-hour chart to a level last seen when the price traded at $1.05.

Notably, $XRP had climbed to $1.70 in September, but the price later began forming a descending triangle. The pattern developed as each rebound produced a lower high while the price continued to test a relatively flat support area. The latest selloff pushed $XRP below that support.

$XRP RSI Hits a Level Not Seen Since $1.05

Amid the drop, $XRP’s 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell to about 29.47, taking it below the important 30 oversold level. The RSI measures price momentum on a scale from 0 to 100. Readings below 30 generally show that an asset has faced selling pressure and can increase the chance of a short-term rebound.

The current reading is even more important when compared with $XRP’s earlier price action. During the visible period on the chart, the RSI reached similarly low levels on only two previous occasions.

On both occasions, $XRP traded near $1.00. This time, the RSI has fallen to the same area while $XRP remains around $1.41. This shows how strong the recent selling has been and indicates that $XRP may start holding up well at higher price levels.

Two Scenarios Playing Out

According to CryptoInsightUK, the charts point to two possible paths for $XRP from here. The first involves a relatively quick recovery, either through a rebound from current levels or a move toward the range high around $1.70.

Notably, the recent break below support could be a possible fakeout, where $XRP briefly falls below a key level, forces weaker holders out of the market, and then recovers. If this happens, buyers could push the price back toward the liquidity sitting around the range highs.

The second scenario would require $XRP to move lower before finding consistent support. An accompanying chart shows a fair value gap between roughly $1.31 and $1.36, marked by the grey area left during $XRP’s September rally.

Markets often return to these unfilled areas before continuing their moves. A drop into this zone would also bring $XRP closer to the $1.30 and $1.29 support levels shown on the charts.

Such a move could also set up a bullish divergence. This would happen if $XRP makes a lower low while the RSI makes a higher low, showing that selling pressure may be weakening as the price falls. However, if the $1.30 and $1.29 supports fail, $XRP could face a deeper decline toward the more aggressive downside target of $1.22.

The Level to Watch

The $1.31-$1.36 range is now the main area to watch. A move into this grey zone could present a more favorable risk-reward setup for patient buyers considering additional spot exposure or a low-leverage long position.

However, $XRP has yet to produce a confirmed reversal signal, so another move below the $1.29 support remains possible.

The most reliable sign of a trend change would come from a bullish divergence on the 4-hour RSI. $XRP would need to make a lower low while the RSI holds a higher low. This would show that sellers are losing strength and could signal that buyers are starting to regain control.